The Forensic Files
Schedule Strength
Two things the standings hide: how hard the slate was (the average Power Rating of the teams you faced) and whether you fade on the second night of a back-to-back.
| SoS | Team | Opp rating | B2B | Rested | Fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1511 | .188 | .394 | −.206 | |
| 2 | 1505 | .455 | .606 | −.151 | |
| 3 | 1505 | .385 | .420 | −.036 | |
| 4 | 1504 | .462 | .522 | −.060 | |
| 5 | 1504 | .333 | .400 | −.067 | |
| 6 | 1503 | .462 | .406 | +.056 | |
| 7 | 1503 | .529 | .554 | −.024 | |
| 8 | 1503 | .733 | .552 | +.181 | |
| 9 | 1503 | .400 | .514 | −.114 | |
| 10 | 1502 | .385 | .609 | −.224 | |
| 11 | 1502 | .529 | .492 | +.037 | |
| 12 | 1502 | .071 | .603 | −.532 | |
| 13 | 1502 | .333 | .522 | −.189 | |
| 14 | 1502 | .357 | .485 | −.128 | |
| 15 | 1502 | .412 | .646 | −.234 | |
| 16 | 1501 | .250 | .439 | −.189 | |
| 17 | 1501 | .455 | .423 | +.032 | |
| 18 | 1500 | .294 | .462 | −.167 | |
| 19 | 1500 | .308 | .391 | −.084 | |
| 20 | 1500 | .500 | .652 | −.152 | |
| 21 | 1500 | .571 | .588 | −.017 | |
| 22 | 1500 | .333 | .525 | −.191 | |
| 23 | 1500 | .429 | .544 | −.116 | |
| 24 | 1499 | .714 | .603 | +.111 | |
| 25 | 1499 | .200 | .486 | −.286 | |
| 26 | 1499 | .077 | .522 | −.445 | |
| 27 | 1498 | .400 | .472 | −.072 | |
| 28 | 1497 | .692 | .580 | +.113 | |
| 29 | 1497 | .385 | .536 | −.152 | |
| 30 | 1496 | .636 | .620 | +.017 |
Biggest back-to-back fades ever
Largest drop from rested to second-night-of-a-back-to-back win rate (since 2007-08, min 8 B2Bs).
- 1
DAL2011-12rested .603 → B2B .071−.532
- 2
OTT2020-21rested .500 → B2B .000−.500
- 3
SEA2024-25rested .500 → B2B .000−.500
- 4
WPG2024-25rested .730 → B2B .250−.480
- 5
WPG2011-12rested .522 → B2B .077−.445
- 6
TOR2019-20rested .597 → B2B .154−.443
- 7
TBL2022-23rested .642 → B2B .200−.442
- 8
NYI2023-24rested .528 → B2B .100−.428
- 9
CGY2008-09rested .632 → B2B .214−.418
- 10
VAN2020-21rested .489 → B2B .091−.398
How to read this. Opp rating is the average Power Rating of every opponent a team faced - higher = a tougher road (1500 is league average). A back-to-back is the second game on consecutive days (0 days rest). Fade is the team's rested win rate minus its back-to-back win rate: −.320 means they win 32 points-of-win-rate less when tired; a green + means they somehow play better on no rest. Regular season.