Forensic Hockey
Forensic Takes
The most striking things our models found this week - who's riding luck, who got robbed, which goalie is running hot, the flukiest Cups. Auto-surfaced and ranked by punch. Tap any card to dig into the numbers.
A best-of-seven is far more predictable than a single game
Seven games let skill outlast the bounces. Across 292 playoff series since 2007-08 the stronger team (by pre-series rating) won 65% of the time — versus the ~58% ceiling for any one game. But it stays a coin flip with a lean: a team that beats its opponent 55% of individual games STILL loses the series about 4 times in 10. And don't trust the standings — raw regular-season points pick the series winner just 53% of the time, barely better than a guess; a quality rating does far better.
Explore the numbers →Takes are generated from our own models - luck-adjusted standings, the goaltending verdict, finishing luck, and the Monte-Carlo deserved bracket - and ranked by how far each is from the norm. They refresh as the season's data updates.