Forensic Hockey
Forensic Takes
The most striking things our models found this week - who's riding luck, who got robbed, which goalie is running hot, the flukiest Cups. Auto-surfaced and ranked by punch. Tap any card to dig into the numbers.
Born early to reach the NHL, born late to star in it
Canadian NHLers are 1.9× more likely to be born January–March than October–December — youth hockey's Dec-31 cutoff favors the relatively oldest kids. But it's selection, not talent: the late-born players who make it actually outscore the early-born (0.417 vs 0.373 pts/game) and last longer (576 vs 499 career games). The December kid had to be better to beat the bias.
Takes are generated from our own models - luck-adjusted standings, the goaltending verdict, finishing luck, and the Monte-Carlo deserved bracket - and ranked by how far each is from the norm. They refresh as the season's data updates.