Luck-Adjusted Standings
The standings if results matched the underlying play. We turn each team's expected goals into the points it should have, then measure who the table flatters and who it robs.
Every team's actual-vs-deserved table for the current season now lives on the league table, alongside the official and power views.
Open the Deserved lens →The luckiest seasons ever
Most points above what their xG deserved.
| Team-Season | Pts | xPts | Luck | Fin | Net | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TBL2018-19 | 128 | 94 | +34.4 | +74 | +25 | +5.1 |
 NSH2017-18 | 117 | 86 | +31.1 | +25 | +46 | +1.9 |
 BOS2022-23 | 135 | 104 | +30.7 | +22 | +69 | +2.5 |
 COL2013-14 | 112 | 83 | +28.7 | +15 | +40 | +5.4 |
 VAN2010-11 | 117 | 91 | +26.3 | +17 | +61 | -1.6 |
| VAN2011-12 | 111 | 85 | +25.9 | +18 | +49 | +0.1 |
 WSH2017-18 | 105 | 80 | +25.3 | +32 | +22 | +4.5 |
 MTL2014-15 | 110 | 85 | +24.9 | +8 | +43 | +2.2 |
| BOS2025-26 | 100 | 75 | +24.9 | +56 | +15 | +0.3 |
 NYR2021-22 | 110 | 86 | +23.7 | +14 | +48 | +2.2 |
 BUF2025-26 | 109 | 86 | +23.2 | +64 | +2 | +1.3 |
| WSH2015-16 | 120 | 97 | +22.9 | +14 | +28 | +3.6 |
The unluckiest seasons ever
Most points below what their xG deserved.
| Team-Season | Pts | xPts | Luck | Fin | Net | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SEA2021-22 | 60 | 92 | -31.7 | -15 | -54 | -2.2 |
| COL2016-17 | 48 | 79 | -31.4 | -36 | -39 | +1.6 |
 NJD2021-22 | 63 | 94 | -31.3 | +4 | -71 | -4.8 |
 CBJ2011-12 | 65 | 93 | -28.3 | -35 | -29 | -0.9 |
 SJS2022-23 | 60 | 88 | -27.9 | -27 | -50 | -5.6 |
 TOR2015-16 | 69 | 96 | -27.3 | -45 | -18 | -2.6 |
 CAR2014-15 | 71 | 98 | -27.2 | -47 | -10 | -3.0 |
| NSH2024-25 | 68 | 93 | -24.8 | -14 | -49 | -0.4 |
| BUF2017-18 | 62 | 85 | -23.4 | -25 | -38 | -1.7 |
| MTL2017-18 | 71 | 94 | -23.0 | -50 | -13 | -2.0 |
| CAR2017-18 | 83 | 106 | -22.9 | -31 | -41 | +0.1 |
 DET2019-20 | 39 | 62 | -22.6 | -38 | -31 | +1.9 |
Deserved champions - who got hot
A what-if: we re-simulate each real bracket 20,000 times by regular-season xG strength. No team is ever a lock - so a Cup won at low odds was a hot run, not a coronation. Monte-Carlo re-sim of the real bracket by regular-season xG strength (20k runs).
| Year | Favorite | Actual champion | Champ odds | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 |  FLA16% | FLA | 16% | Chalk |
| 2023-24 |  EDM21% | FLA | 14% | Upset |
| 2022-23 | NJD18% |  VGK | 5% | Stunner |
| 2021-22 |  CGY15% | COL | 6% | Stunner |
| 2020-21 | COL22% | TBL | 4% | Stunner |
| 2019-20 | VGK22% | TBL | 5% | Stunner |
| 2018-19 | CAR17% |  STL | 10% | Upset |
| 2017-18 |  MIN12% | WSH | 1% | Stunner |
| 2016-17 | BOS20% |  PIT | 8% | Upset |
| 2015-16 | PIT19% | PIT | 19% | Chalk |
| 2014-15 |  NYI20% |  CHI | 6% | Stunner |
| 2013-14 | SJS29% |  LAK | 7% | Stunner |
| 2012-13 | SJS11% | CHI | 8% | Upset |
| 2011-12 | SJS18% | LAK | 6% | Stunner |
| 2010-11 | SJS30% | BOS | 2% | Stunner |
Finishing in the playoffs - clutch or cold?
Does a shooter's finishing - burying chances above expected - hold up in the playoffs? Career regular-season finishing per 100 shots vs playoffs, the playoff rate regressed toward each player's own regular-season rate (finishing needs ~270 shots to trust, so a hot run doesn't qualify). Shooters with ≥150 career playoff shots on goal.
Clutch in the playoffs
| Shooter | RS | PO | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| D. BrièreCOL · 156 PO sh | -0.36 | +2.33 | +2.70 |
| C. KreiderANA · 268 PO sh | +1.20 | +3.73 | +2.54 |
| O. PalatNYI · 310 PO sh | -0.31 | +2.05 | +2.36 |
| J. GuentzelTBL · 240 PO sh | +1.74 | +3.80 | +2.06 |
| B. SeabrookCHI · 195 PO sh | -0.41 | +1.61 | +2.02 |
| S. BennettFLA · 298 PO sh | -1.67 | +0.17 | +1.84 |
| J. DeBruskVAN · 172 PO sh | -0.23 | +1.56 | +1.79 |
| L. CoutureSJS · 326 PO sh | +1.75 | +3.51 | +1.76 |
| M. StoneVGK · 241 PO sh | +2.54 | +4.25 | +1.71 |
| M. RiellyTOR · 161 PO sh | -1.03 | +0.64 | +1.67 |
| M. HeiskanenDAL · 224 PO sh | -1.39 | +0.24 | +1.63 |
| D. KeithEDM · 300 PO sh | -1.32 | +0.18 | +1.50 |
| V. NichushkinCOL · 200 PO sh | -0.75 | +0.73 | +1.48 |
| D. DoughtyLAK · 199 PO sh | +0.12 | +1.59 | +1.47 |
| A. LehkonenCOL · 196 PO sh | -1.15 | +0.26 | +1.40 |
| D. KrejciBOS · 279 PO sh | +1.27 | +2.64 | +1.38 |
| N. MacKinnonCOL · 488 PO sh | +1.30 | +2.62 | +1.32 |
| J. BoychukNYI · 230 PO sh | -0.91 | +0.38 | +1.29 |
| E. BouchardEDM · 220 PO sh | +1.05 | +2.29 | +1.25 |
| J. CarterPIT · 316 PO sh | -0.06 | +1.11 | +1.16 |
Regular-season snipers who cool
| Shooter | RS | PO | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| T. SeguinDAL · 425 PO sh | +1.55 | -1.73 | -3.29 |
| A. MatthewsTOR · 282 PO sh | +3.81 | +0.98 | -2.84 |
| R. NashBOS · 287 PO sh | +1.06 | -1.69 | -2.74 |
| M. HossaCHI · 362 PO sh | +0.56 | -1.94 | -2.50 |
| V. FilppulaDET · 168 PO sh | +2.68 | +0.65 | -2.02 |
| A. BarkovFLA · 261 PO sh | +2.51 | +0.50 | -2.01 |
| J. MillerNYR · 155 PO sh | +2.94 | +0.98 | -1.96 |
| N. KucherovTBL · 482 PO sh | +5.25 | +3.32 | -1.94 |
| M. NecasCOL · 167 PO sh | +3.62 | +1.83 | -1.79 |
| C. PerryTBL · 421 PO sh | +0.13 | -1.41 | -1.54 |
| A. OvechkinWSH · 548 PO sh | +4.07 | +2.55 | -1.51 |
| C. KunitzCHI · 240 PO sh | +0.85 | -0.60 | -1.45 |
| C. SmithDET · 197 PO sh | -1.26 | -2.67 | -1.41 |
| M. ZibanejadNYR · 197 PO sh | +3.48 | +2.13 | -1.35 |
| V. ArvidssonBOS · 222 PO sh | +1.11 | -0.21 | -1.33 |
| J. ThorntonFLA · 210 PO sh | +1.14 | -0.13 | -1.28 |
| C. McAvoyBOS · 159 PO sh | +0.69 | -0.57 | -1.26 |
| D. OrlovSJS · 164 PO sh | +0.09 | -1.16 | -1.25 |
| J. BennDAL · 280 PO sh | +1.04 | -0.20 | -1.24 |
| S. CrosbyPIT · 401 PO sh | +3.26 | +2.02 | -1.23 |
Looking for the power-play and penalty-kill forensics, or the special-teams faceoff men? They live on Special Teams.
How to read this.Expected points come from each team's xG goal differentialfed through the league's own points-to-goal-differential relationship (calibrated on every team-season, no magic numbers). +Luck = the table flatters them (they out-scored their chances and/or got bailed out in net - historically a regression signal); −Luck = better than their record, due to bounce back. The split: Fin = goals scored above expected, Net = team goals saved above expected (goaltending). Close is a separate lens - wins above or below what the goal differentialearned (the Pythagorean expectation, exponent fit on our own seasons). It captures close-game / shoot-out luck, runs independent of the xG luck on its left, and on our data doesn't carry over year to year. Regular season, 2010-11 to present.