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Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets

COL logo
AwayColorado AvalancheCOL
Final
1-3
WPG logo
HomeWinnipeg JetsWPG
Mar 14, 2026/Canada Life Centre / Winnipeg/TV: TSN3, ALT

Overview Signals

Score

1-3

Final

Shots

29-19

COL / WPG

Power Play Goals

0-0

COL / WPG

WPG Shot Edge

-10

Hits +3

The Story

WPG beat COL 3-1. COL generated the better chances (69% of the expected goals), but WPG found a way. C. Hellebuyck (WPG) was the difference in net, +1.5 goals saved above expected.

Win Probability

Live chance of winning from the game state - score, time, strength

Pre-game projection: COL 59% · WPG 41%

COL 0%WPG 100%
Tension - how much the next goal swings itPeak P3 19:00 · 56%

Key Moments

  1. P2 02:05WPGgoal · 0-1+21% WP
  2. P2 11:52WPGgoal · 0-2+20% WP
  3. P3 18:44COLgoal · 1-2+7% WP
  4. P3 19:18WPGgoal · 1-3+4% WP

Deserve-to-Win

Share of expected goals (chance quality), against the actual score

Final
COL 69%
31% WPG
xG 2.47 · Goals 1Goals 3 · xG 1.11

Expected Goals - Cumulative

Who is earning the better chances over the game (goal ticks below)

COL 2.47WPG 1.11

Momentum

Rolling 5-minute share of expected goals - who is pressing

WPG ▲COL ▼

Scoring Chances by Danger

HighMediumLowCOL41510WPG1711

Chances by Score State

Expected goals (attempts) by the shooter's game state - where the chances came from

LeadingTiedTrailingCOL0.00 (0)0.58 (17)1.89 (62)WPG0.72 (28)0.39 (9)0.00 (0)

Goaltending - is the goalie stealing it?

GSAx = goals saved above expected (Forensic xG faced − goals against). Right of center = robbing the shooters; left = leaking.

M. BlackwoodCOLLeaking-0.92
56:41 · .889 SV% · 2 GA on 1.1 xG18 shots
C. HellebuyckWPGBailing them out+1.47
59:41 · .966 SV% · 1 GA on 2.5 xG29 shots
COL logo

COL

Attempts

79

Shots

29

Goals

1

xG

2.47

wrist: 30unknown: 27snap: 9
WPG logo

WPG

Attempts

37

Shots

19

Goals

3

xG

1.11

wrist: 17unknown: 7slap: 6

Rink Shot Map

NHL rink coordinates / Forensic xG marker size

COLWPG116 attempts / 4 goals
WPG Shot P1 00:22 / xG 0.05WPG Missed P1 00:26 / xG N/ACOL Shot P1 01:10 / xG 0.03COL Blocked P1 01:26 / xG N/ACOL Shot P1 01:32 / xG 0.05COL Shot P1 03:18 / xG 0.03COL Shot P1 03:40 / xG 0.07COL Shot P1 05:15 / xG 0.03COL Missed P1 05:17 / xG N/ACOL Blocked P1 05:23 / xG N/AWPG Shot P1 06:29 / xG 0.04COL Shot P1 07:20 / xG 0.21COL Blocked P1 07:39 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P1 10:03 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P1 12:49 / xG N/ACOL Missed P1 13:26 / xG N/ACOL Shot P1 14:01 / xG 0.03COL Blocked P1 14:28 / xG N/ACOL Missed P1 17:06 / xG N/ACOL Shot P1 17:10 / xG 0.13WPG Shot P1 19:02 / xG 0.11WPG Shot P1 19:48 / xG 0.05WPG Shot P1 19:51 / xG 0.06COL Blocked P2 00:23 / xG N/ACOL Missed P2 01:34 / xG N/AWPG Goal P2 02:05 / xG 0.09COL Blocked P2 02:20 / xG N/ACOL Shot P2 02:25 / xG 0.06WPG Shot P2 02:45 / xG 0.04COL Shot P2 02:55 / xG 0.10COL Blocked P2 03:27 / xG N/ACOL Shot P2 06:01 / xG 0.07COL Blocked P2 06:08 / xG N/ACOL Shot P2 06:24 / xG 0.08COL Missed P2 06:30 / xG N/ACOL Missed P2 07:33 / xG N/ACOL Missed P2 07:52 / xG N/ACOL Blocked P2 07:54 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 08:56 / xG 0.02COL Blocked P2 09:31 / xG N/ACOL Blocked P2 11:38 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 11:49 / xG N/AWPG Goal P2 11:52 / xG 0.15WPG Blocked P2 12:30 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 12:32 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 12:41 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 13:22 / xG 0.05WPG Blocked P2 13:30 / xG N/ACOL Blocked P2 14:02 / xG N/ACOL Missed P2 14:28 / xG N/ACOL Shot P2 14:30 / xG 0.07COL Shot P2 14:52 / xG 0.13COL Missed P2 14:59 / xG N/ACOL Shot P2 15:23 / xG 0.03WPG Shot P2 15:39 / xG 0.08WPG Missed P2 16:10 / xG N/ACOL Shot P2 18:27 / xG 0.05WPG Shot P2 18:52 / xG 0.07COL Missed P2 19:29 / xG N/ACOL Missed P2 19:44 / xG N/ACOL Missed P2 19:49 / xG N/ACOL Missed P2 19:50 / xG N/ACOL Missed P3 00:09 / xG N/ACOL Shot P3 00:25 / xG 0.23COL Missed P3 00:26 / xG N/ACOL Shot P3 00:32 / xG 0.04COL Blocked P3 00:36 / xG N/AWPG Missed P3 02:18 / xG N/ACOL Blocked P3 02:41 / xG N/ACOL Shot P3 03:00 / xG 0.02COL Blocked P3 03:04 / xG N/ACOL Blocked P3 03:18 / xG N/ACOL Missed P3 03:30 / xG N/ACOL Shot P3 03:40 / xG 0.05COL Blocked P3 04:06 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 04:18 / xG 0.04COL Shot P3 05:04 / xG 0.06COL Blocked P3 05:10 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 05:42 / xG 0.06COL Blocked P3 06:13 / xG N/ACOL Blocked P3 06:22 / xG N/ACOL Missed P3 06:40 / xG N/ACOL Missed P3 07:17 / xG N/ACOL Shot P3 10:00 / xG 0.10COL Shot P3 10:09 / xG 0.11COL Blocked P3 10:27 / xG N/ACOL Missed P3 10:53 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 11:05 / xG 0.04WPG Shot P3 11:49 / xG 0.04WPG Shot P3 11:56 / xG 0.04COL Missed P3 12:12 / xG N/ACOL Missed P3 12:14 / xG N/ACOL Blocked P3 13:17 / xG N/ACOL Shot P3 13:22 / xG 0.02WPG Missed P3 13:40 / xG N/AWPG Missed P3 13:54 / xG N/ACOL Blocked P3 14:55 / xG N/AWPG Missed P3 15:01 / xG N/AWPG Missed P3 15:22 / xG N/AWPG Missed P3 15:37 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 15:53 / xG 0.05COL Blocked P3 16:23 / xG N/ACOL Blocked P3 16:31 / xG N/ACOL Blocked P3 16:50 / xG N/ACOL Shot P3 17:03 / xG 0.06COL Shot P3 17:05 / xG 0.22COL Blocked P3 17:07 / xG N/ACOL Missed P3 17:15 / xG N/ACOL Shot P3 17:22 / xG 0.05COL Missed P3 17:36 / xG N/ACOL Shot P3 17:36 / xG 0.23WPG Missed P3 17:46 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P3 17:52 / xG N/ACOL Goal P3 18:44 / xG 0.10WPG Goal P3 19:18 / xG 0.04WPG Missed P3 19:51 / xG N/A

Five Minute Momentum

0:00-5:00
5-2
5:00-10:00
5-1
10:00-15:00
3-2
15:00-20:00
2-3
20:00-25:00
6-2
25:00-30:00
8-1
30:00-35:00
6-7
35:00-40:00
6-3
40:00-45:00
12-2
45:00-50:00
6-1
50:00-55:00
9-5
55:00-60:00
11-8

Pressure By Period

PeriodCOL AttCOL xGWPG AttWPG xG
1st Period150.5880.30
2nd Period260.59130.51
3rd Period381.30160.30

Source: NHL play-by-play shot attempts with Forensic Hockey xG where enriched shot rows are available.