Forensic Hockey

New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders

Jan 6, 2026/UBS Arena / Elmont/TV: ESPN+, HULU

Overview Signals

Score

0-9

Final

Shots

44-24

NJD / NYI

Power Play Goals

0-0

NJD / NYI

NYI Shot Edge

-20

Hits -2

The Story

NYI beat NJD 9-0. NJD generated the better chances (65% of the expected goals), but NYI found a way. J. Markstrom (NJD) had a rough night, -7.0 goals saved above expected.

Win Probability

Live chance of winning from the game state - score, time, strength

Pre-game projection: NJD 45% · NYI 55%

NJD 0%NYI 100%
Tension - how much the next goal swings itPeak P1 0:00 · 44%

Key Moments

  1. P1 01:08NYIgoal · 0-1+20% WP
  2. P1 04:01NYIgoal · 0-2+14% WP
  3. P1 13:31NYIgoal · 0-3+10% WP
  4. P2 03:29NYIgoal · 0-4+4% WP
  5. P2 11:12NYIgoal · 0-5+0% WP
  6. P3 01:34NYIgoal · 0-6+0% WP

Deserve-to-Win

Share of expected goals (chance quality), against the actual score

Final
NJD 65%
35% NYI
xG 3.69 · Goals 0Goals 9 · xG 2.00

Expected Goals - Cumulative

Who is earning the better chances over the game (goal ticks below)

NJD 3.69NYI 2.00

Momentum

Rolling 5-minute share of expected goals - who is pressing

NYINJD

Scoring Chances by Danger

HighMediumLowNJD62414NYI3129

Chances by Score State

Expected goals (attempts) by the shooter's game state - where the chances came from

LeadingTiedTrailingNJD0.00 (0)0.00 (0)3.69 (82)NYI1.94 (33)0.07 (1)0.00 (0)

Goaltending - is the goalie stealing it?

GSAx = goals saved above expected (Forensic xG faced − goals against). Right of center = robbing the shooters; left = leaking.

J. MarkstromNJDGetting lit up-7.00
60:00 · .625 SV% · 9 GA on 2.0 xG24 shots
I. SorokinNYI🔥 Stealing it+3.69
60:00 · 1.000 SV% · 0 GA on 3.7 xG44 shots
NJD logo

NJD

Attempts

82

Shots

44

Goals

0

xG

3.69

wrist: 35unknown: 19snap: 10
NYI logo

NYI

Attempts

34

Shots

24

Goals

9

xG

2.00

snap: 12wrist: 9unknown: 5

Rink Shot Map

NHL rink coordinates / Forensic xG marker size

NJDNYI116 attempts / 9 goals
NYI Goal P1 01:08 / xG 0.07NJD Shot P1 01:21 / xG 0.07NJD Shot P1 01:29 / xG 0.12NJD Blocked P1 01:34 / xG N/ANJD Shot P1 01:42 / xG 0.23NYI Shot P1 02:02 / xG 0.05NJD Shot P1 02:56 / xG 0.05NJD Shot P1 02:59 / xG 0.11NYI Goal P1 04:01 / xG 0.07NJD Blocked P1 04:31 / xG N/ANJD Shot P1 05:40 / xG 0.01NJD Blocked P1 06:33 / xG N/ANJD Shot P1 06:37 / xG 0.20NJD Shot P1 07:20 / xG 0.08NJD Blocked P1 07:40 / xG N/ANJD Blocked P1 08:52 / xG N/ANJD Blocked P1 09:11 / xG N/ANJD Shot P1 09:18 / xG 0.04NJD Shot P1 09:28 / xG 0.11NYI Missed P1 09:43 / xG N/ANJD Blocked P1 10:18 / xG N/ANJD Blocked P1 11:21 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 11:56 / xG 0.07NJD Shot P1 12:32 / xG 0.06NJD Shot P1 12:36 / xG 0.10NYI Goal P1 13:31 / xG 0.06NJD Missed P1 13:38 / xG N/ANJD Blocked P1 13:41 / xG N/ANYI Missed P1 14:16 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P1 14:57 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 15:51 / xG 0.04NJD Shot P1 15:58 / xG 0.04NJD Shot P1 17:12 / xG 0.07NJD Missed P1 17:17 / xG N/ANJD Blocked P1 17:20 / xG N/ANJD Shot P1 19:21 / xG 0.10NYI Shot P1 19:45 / xG 0.03NYI Blocked P2 01:19 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 01:57 / xG 0.14NYI Blocked P2 02:02 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 02:07 / xG 0.03NYI Goal P2 03:29 / xG 0.05NJD Shot P2 03:37 / xG 0.01NJD Shot P2 04:11 / xG 0.12NJD Shot P2 04:18 / xG 0.18NJD Shot P2 05:16 / xG 0.08NYI Shot P2 06:18 / xG 0.17NJD Missed P2 07:17 / xG N/ANJD Shot P2 09:12 / xG 0.03NJD Missed P2 09:29 / xG N/ANJD Blocked P2 09:34 / xG N/ANJD Shot P2 09:36 / xG 0.04NJD Missed P2 10:16 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P2 10:40 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 11:00 / xG 0.08NYI Shot P2 11:07 / xG 0.04NYI Goal P2 11:12 / xG 0.15NJD Shot P2 12:10 / xG 0.05NJD Shot P2 12:13 / xG 0.19NJD Shot P2 12:24 / xG 0.10NJD Shot P2 12:40 / xG 0.05NJD Shot P2 12:41 / xG 0.13NJD Blocked P2 12:45 / xG N/ANJD Blocked P2 12:50 / xG N/ANJD Shot P2 13:48 / xG 0.07NJD Shot P2 13:55 / xG 0.07NJD Shot P2 13:56 / xG 0.15NJD Blocked P2 13:58 / xG N/ANJD Missed P2 14:03 / xG N/ANJD Shot P2 14:55 / xG 0.04NJD Shot P2 15:02 / xG 0.15NYI Shot P2 15:44 / xG 0.06NYI Shot P2 15:46 / xG 0.11NYI Shot P2 16:01 / xG 0.05NJD Missed P2 16:30 / xG N/ANJD Shot P2 17:05 / xG 0.11NJD Missed P2 17:06 / xG N/ANJD Shot P2 18:00 / xG 0.16NJD Missed P2 18:09 / xG N/ANJD Shot P2 18:31 / xG 0.07NJD Missed P2 19:45 / xG N/ANJD Missed P2 19:46 / xG N/ANJD Blocked P2 19:55 / xG N/ANJD Missed P3 00:18 / xG N/ANJD Shot P3 01:07 / xG 0.13NJD Blocked P3 01:25 / xG N/ANYI Goal P3 01:34 / xG 0.10NJD Missed P3 02:13 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 03:50 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 04:30 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 05:13 / xG N/ANJD Blocked P3 05:29 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 06:34 / xG 0.05NJD Shot P3 07:41 / xG 0.01NJD Shot P3 08:47 / xG 0.05NJD Shot P3 08:48 / xG 0.09NJD Shot P3 08:52 / xG 0.07NJD Missed P3 08:58 / xG N/ANJD Blocked P3 09:53 / xG N/ANJD Missed P3 10:20 / xG N/ANYI Goal P3 11:28 / xG 0.11NJD Missed P3 11:46 / xG N/ANJD Missed P3 11:50 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P3 12:49 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 12:57 / xG 0.02NJD Missed P3 13:09 / xG N/ANJD Missed P3 15:34 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 16:39 / xG 0.23NJD Blocked P3 16:48 / xG N/ANJD Shot P3 18:13 / xG 0.06NJD Shot P3 18:29 / xG 0.03NYI Goal P3 18:36 / xG 0.11NYI Goal P3 19:02 / xG 0.13NJD Shot P3 19:11 / xG 0.01NJD Shot P3 19:47 / xG 0.03NJD Shot P3 19:52 / xG 0.03

Five Minute Momentum

0:00-5:00
7-3
5:00-10:00
9-1
10:00-15:00
6-4
15:00-20:00
5-2
20:00-25:00
3-5
25:00-30:00
6-1
30:00-35:00
14-4
35:00-40:00
10-3
40:00-45:00
4-3
45:00-50:00
7-2
50:00-55:00
4-3
55:00-60:00
7-3

Pressure By Period

PeriodNJD AttNJD xGNYI AttNYI xG
1st Period271.38100.38
2nd Period331.79130.87
3rd Period220.51110.75

Source: NHL play-by-play shot attempts with Forensic Hockey xG where enriched shot rows are available.