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Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets

OTT logo
AwayOttawa SenatorsOTT
Final / OT
3-2
WPG logo
HomeWinnipeg JetsWPG
Dec 15, 2025/Canada Life Centre / Winnipeg/TV: Prime, RDS

Overview Signals

Score

3-2

Final / OT

Shots

31-25

OTT / WPG

Power Play Goals

0-0

OTT / WPG

WPG Shot Edge

-6

Hits -11

The Story

OTT beat WPG 3-2 in overtime. Chances were close to even - OTT held 59% of the expected goals.

Win Probability

Live chance of winning from the game state - score, time, strength

Pre-game projection: OTT 41% · WPG 59%

OTT 84%WPG 16%
Tension - how much the next goal swings itPeak OT 0:00 · 91%

Key Moments

  1. P2 10:47OTTgoal · 1-0+22% WP
  2. P2 15:37WPGgoal · 1-1+24% WP
  3. P2 18:35WPGgoal · 1-2+24% WP
  4. P3 18:06OTTgoal · 2-2+28% WP
  5. OT 02:11OTTgoal · 3-2+48% WP

Deserve-to-Win

Share of expected goals (chance quality), against the actual score

Final
OTT 59%
41% WPG
xG 3.64 · Goals 3Goals 2 · xG 2.55

Expected Goals - Cumulative

Who is earning the better chances over the game (goal ticks below)

OTT 3.64WPG 2.55

Momentum

Rolling 5-minute share of expected goals - who is pressing

WPG ▲OTT ▼

Scoring Chances by Danger

HighMediumLowOTT9175WPG6127

Chances by Score State

Expected goals (attempts) by the shooter's game state - where the chances came from

LeadingTiedTrailingOTT0.00 (0)2.82 (37)0.82 (23)WPG0.63 (10)1.74 (43)0.18 (8)

Goaltending - is the goalie stealing it?

GSAx = goals saved above expected (Forensic xG faced − goals against). Right of center = robbing the shooters; left = leaking.

L. UllmarkOTTAs expected+0.55
61:28 · .920 SV% · 2 GA on 2.6 xG25 shots
C. HellebuyckWPGAs expected+0.64
62:11 · .903 SV% · 3 GA on 3.6 xG31 shots
OTT logo

OTT

Attempts

60

Shots

31

Goals

3

xG

3.64

wrist: 23unknown: 16snap: 5
WPG logo

WPG

Attempts

61

Shots

25

Goals

2

xG

2.55

wrist: 19unknown: 17slap: 7

Rink Shot Map

NHL rink coordinates / Forensic xG marker size

OTTWPG121 attempts / 5 goals
WPG Blocked P1 00:11 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 01:22 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P1 01:27 / xG N/AOTT Missed P1 02:41 / xG N/AOTT Shot P1 03:35 / xG 0.09OTT Blocked P1 03:44 / xG N/AWPG Shot P1 04:33 / xG 0.04OTT Missed P1 05:01 / xG N/AOTT Shot P1 05:35 / xG 0.04OTT Missed P1 06:48 / xG N/AOTT Missed P1 07:00 / xG N/AOTT Shot P1 09:13 / xG 0.32WPG Shot P1 09:22 / xG 0.12OTT Missed P1 09:51 / xG N/AOTT Blocked P1 10:51 / xG N/AOTT Blocked P1 11:59 / xG N/AOTT Shot P1 12:00 / xG 0.26OTT Shot P1 12:20 / xG 0.08OTT Missed P1 12:39 / xG N/AOTT Blocked P1 12:59 / xG N/AOTT Shot P1 13:13 / xG 0.10WPG Shot P1 14:44 / xG 0.21WPG Shot P1 14:45 / xG 0.20WPG Blocked P1 15:04 / xG N/AWPG Shot P1 15:43 / xG 0.14WPG Shot P1 15:44 / xG 0.14OTT Shot P1 17:03 / xG 0.11WPG Blocked P1 17:19 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 18:23 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 18:29 / xG N/AWPG Shot P1 19:03 / xG 0.12WPG Missed P1 19:12 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 19:14 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 19:16 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 19:33 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P1 19:58 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 00:32 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 00:40 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 01:04 / xG N/AOTT Blocked P2 02:03 / xG N/AOTT Blocked P2 03:25 / xG N/AOTT Shot P2 03:52 / xG 0.06WPG Missed P2 04:10 / xG N/AOTT Shot P2 06:27 / xG 0.21OTT Shot P2 06:28 / xG 0.21WPG Missed P2 07:50 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 07:56 / xG 0.04WPG Missed P2 08:03 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 08:19 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 08:29 / xG N/AOTT Shot P2 08:59 / xG 0.15OTT Shot P2 09:07 / xG 0.15OTT Shot P2 09:28 / xG 0.17OTT Missed P2 09:29 / xG N/AOTT Shot P2 09:30 / xG 0.17WPG Shot P2 09:49 / xG 0.13OTT Shot P2 10:18 / xG 0.07OTT Shot P2 10:27 / xG 0.05OTT Goal P2 10:47 / xG 0.09WPG Missed P2 11:01 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 11:41 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 12:45 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 12:49 / xG 0.03WPG Shot P2 13:03 / xG 0.09WPG Missed P2 13:42 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 14:18 / xG N/AWPG Goal P2 15:37 / xG 0.05WPG Shot P2 15:51 / xG 0.03WPG Shot P2 16:07 / xG 0.05WPG Shot P2 16:37 / xG 0.04OTT Shot P2 17:12 / xG 0.04WPG Missed P2 17:23 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 17:36 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 17:52 / xG 0.23WPG Blocked P2 17:58 / xG N/AWPG Goal P2 18:35 / xG 0.06OTT Shot P2 19:27 / xG 0.15OTT Missed P3 00:09 / xG N/AOTT Shot P3 00:39 / xG 0.06OTT Shot P3 00:50 / xG 0.09OTT Missed P3 03:32 / xG N/AOTT Blocked P3 03:37 / xG N/AOTT Blocked P3 03:40 / xG N/AOTT Missed P3 03:43 / xG N/AOTT Missed P3 05:38 / xG N/AOTT Blocked P3 06:05 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 06:40 / xG 0.12WPG Shot P3 06:54 / xG 0.16OTT Missed P3 07:41 / xG N/AOTT Shot P3 08:04 / xG 0.14WPG Missed P3 08:40 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P3 08:55 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 09:19 / xG 0.17WPG Shot P3 09:21 / xG 0.08OTT Shot P3 11:21 / xG 0.07WPG Missed P3 11:51 / xG N/AOTT Shot P3 12:59 / xG 0.05WPG Shot P3 14:05 / xG 0.04OTT Shot P3 15:12 / xG 0.19OTT Blocked P3 15:14 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 15:25 / xG 0.05WPG Blocked P3 15:35 / xG N/AOTT Blocked P3 16:05 / xG N/AOTT Blocked P3 16:06 / xG N/AOTT Blocked P3 17:17 / xG N/AOTT Blocked P3 17:43 / xG N/AOTT Blocked P3 17:48 / xG N/AOTT Missed P3 17:53 / xG N/AOTT Goal P3 18:06 / xG 0.07WPG Blocked P3 18:44 / xG N/AOTT Blocked P3 18:52 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P3 19:12 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 19:36 / xG 0.02OTT Shot P3 19:57 / xG 0.01OTT Shot P4 00:21 / xG 0.08WPG Missed P4 00:29 / xG N/AOTT Shot P4 00:40 / xG 0.21WPG Shot P4 00:48 / xG 0.17OTT Shot P4 01:17 / xG 0.07WPG Missed P4 01:27 / xG N/AOTT Goal P4 02:11 / xG 0.08

Five Minute Momentum

0:00-5:00
3-4
5:00-10:00
6-1
10:00-15:00
7-2
15:00-20:00
1-12
20:00-25:00
3-4
25:00-30:00
7-6
30:00-35:00
3-7
35:00-40:00
2-9
40:00-45:00
7-0
45:00-50:00
4-6
50:00-55:00
2-2
55:00-60:00
11-5
60:00-65:00
4-3

Pressure By Period

PeriodOTT AttOTT xGWPG AttWPG xG
1st Period171.00190.97
2nd Period151.50260.76
3rd Period240.68130.65
Overtime40.4530.17

Source: NHL play-by-play shot attempts with Forensic Hockey xG where enriched shot rows are available.