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Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

TBL logo
AwayTampa Bay LightningTBL
Final / SO
2-3
NYI logo
HomeNew York IslandersNYI
Dec 13, 2025/UBS Arena / Elmont/TV: The Spot, MSGSN

Overview Signals

Score

2-3

Final / SO

Shots

34-17

TBL / NYI

Power Play Goals

1-1

TBL / NYI

NYI Shot Edge

-17

Hits -8

The Story

NYI beat TBL 3-2 in 2OT. TBL generated the better chances (68% of the expected goals), but NYI found a way. I. Sorokin (NYI) was the difference in net, +2.8 goals saved above expected.

Win Probability

Live chance of winning from the game state - score, time, strength

Pre-game projection: TBL 53% · NYI 47%

TBL 53%NYI 47%
Tension - how much the next goal swings itPeak OT 0:00 · 91%

Key Moments

  1. P1 03:05NYIgoal · 0-1+18% WP
  2. P1 10:16NYIgoal · 0-2+17% WP
  3. P2 10:13TBLgoal · 1-2+19% WP
  4. P3 03:20TBLgoal · 2-2+29% WP
  5. 2OT 00:00NYIgoal · 2-2+0% WP
  6. 2OT 00:00TBLgoal · 2-2+0% WP

Deserve-to-Win

Share of expected goals (chance quality), against the actual score

Final
TBL 68%
32% NYI
xG 4.79 · Goals 2Goals 3 · xG 2.23

Expected Goals - Cumulative

Who is earning the better chances over the game (goal ticks below)

TBL 4.79NYI 2.23

Momentum

Rolling 5-minute share of expected goals - who is pressing

NYI ▲TBL ▼

Scoring Chances by Danger

HighMediumLowTBL14149NYI776

Chances by Score State

Expected goals (attempts) by the shooter's game state - where the chances came from

LeadingTiedTrailingTBL0.00 (0)1.53 (22)3.26 (53)NYI0.77 (21)1.46 (23)0.00 (0)

Goaltending - is the goalie stealing it?

GSAx = goals saved above expected (Forensic xG faced − goals against). Right of center = robbing the shooters; left = leaking.

J. JohanssonTBLAs expected+0.23
64:54 · .882 SV% · 2 GA on 2.2 xG17 shots
I. SorokinNYI🔥 Stealing it+2.79
65:00 · .941 SV% · 2 GA on 4.8 xG34 shots
TBL logo

TBL

Attempts

75

Shots

37

Goals

3

xG

4.79

snap: 30unknown: 22tip-in: 9
NYI logo

NYI

Attempts

44

Shots

20

Goals

4

xG

2.23

snap: 14wrist: 12unknown: 10

Rink Shot Map

NHL rink coordinates / Forensic xG marker size

TBLNYI119 attempts / 7 goals
TBL Shot P1 00:51 / xG 0.26TBL Shot P1 01:00 / xG 0.08NYI Blocked P1 01:23 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P1 02:47 / xG N/ANYI Goal P1 03:05 / xG 0.12NYI Missed P1 04:12 / xG N/ATBL Missed P1 04:41 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P1 05:00 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P1 06:23 / xG N/ATBL Shot P1 07:17 / xG 0.09TBL Shot P1 07:31 / xG 0.04TBL Shot P1 07:48 / xG 0.03TBL Shot P1 08:08 / xG 0.05TBL Blocked P1 08:13 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P1 08:15 / xG N/ATBL Missed P1 08:45 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 09:29 / xG 0.02NYI Goal P1 10:16 / xG 0.12TBL Missed P1 10:34 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 11:20 / xG 0.02NYI Missed P1 11:22 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 11:25 / xG 0.08NYI Shot P1 12:10 / xG 0.15TBL Shot P1 12:44 / xG 0.21TBL Blocked P1 13:30 / xG N/ATBL Shot P1 13:33 / xG 0.17TBL Blocked P1 14:13 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P1 14:20 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 14:32 / xG 0.01TBL Blocked P1 17:36 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P1 18:16 / xG N/ATBL Missed P1 18:32 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 18:57 / xG 0.07NYI Shot P1 19:06 / xG 0.02TBL Blocked P1 19:41 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 00:49 / xG N/ATBL Shot P2 03:12 / xG 0.19TBL Shot P2 03:13 / xG 0.36TBL Shot P2 04:28 / xG 0.04NYI Blocked P2 04:57 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 05:19 / xG N/ATBL Shot P2 05:54 / xG 0.04TBL Missed P2 06:58 / xG N/ATBL Shot P2 07:03 / xG 0.04TBL Shot P2 07:26 / xG 0.03TBL Shot P2 08:07 / xG 0.07TBL Blocked P2 08:25 / xG N/ATBL Shot P2 09:51 / xG 0.12TBL Shot P2 10:00 / xG 0.25TBL Goal P2 10:13 / xG 0.10TBL Missed P2 10:29 / xG N/ATBL Shot P2 10:39 / xG 0.21TBL Shot P2 10:47 / xG 0.11TBL Shot P2 11:00 / xG 0.22TBL Blocked P2 11:24 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P2 12:44 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 12:56 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 12:57 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 13:32 / xG 0.10NYI Missed P2 13:35 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P2 14:50 / xG N/ATBL Missed P2 15:02 / xG N/ATBL Shot P2 15:04 / xG 0.27TBL Missed P2 15:40 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P2 15:46 / xG N/ATBL Missed P2 16:17 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P2 16:29 / xG N/ATBL Shot P2 18:00 / xG 0.09TBL Shot P2 18:03 / xG 0.02TBL Blocked P2 18:34 / xG N/ATBL Missed P2 19:13 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P2 19:19 / xG N/ATBL Missed P2 19:23 / xG N/ATBL Shot P2 19:25 / xG 0.17NYI Missed P3 00:11 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 01:51 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 02:20 / xG 0.18TBL Goal P3 03:20 / xG 0.08TBL Blocked P3 05:08 / xG N/ATBL Shot P3 05:20 / xG 0.07NYI Blocked P3 06:10 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 06:18 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P3 06:26 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 07:04 / xG 0.09NYI Missed P3 07:12 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 07:26 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 07:27 / xG 0.29NYI Blocked P3 07:29 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P3 07:57 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 08:21 / xG 0.04TBL Shot P3 11:01 / xG 0.05TBL Shot P3 11:04 / xG 0.03NYI Shot P3 11:22 / xG 0.21TBL Shot P3 11:38 / xG 0.11TBL Missed P3 11:40 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P3 13:31 / xG N/ATBL Shot P3 14:01 / xG 0.02TBL Missed P3 15:14 / xG N/ATBL Missed P3 15:30 / xG N/ATBL Missed P3 15:34 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P3 16:52 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P3 18:26 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P3 19:00 / xG N/ATBL Missed P3 19:38 / xG N/ATBL Shot P3 19:41 / xG 0.15TBL Shot P3 19:46 / xG 0.10NYI Shot P3 19:51 / xG 0.02NYI Missed P3 19:59 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P4 01:00 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P4 02:44 / xG N/ANYI Shot P4 03:19 / xG 0.07TBL Shot P4 04:11 / xG 0.14NYI Missed P4 04:58 / xG N/ATBL Shot P5 00:00 / xG 0.24NYI Goal P5 00:00 / xG 0.20TBL Goal P5 00:00 / xG 0.26NYI Shot P5 00:00 / xG 0.21TBL Shot P5 00:00 / xG 0.26NYI Goal P5 00:00 / xG 0.22

Five Minute Momentum

0:00-5:00
3-4
5:00-10:00
9-1
10:00-15:00
6-6
15:00-20:00
4-2
20:00-25:00
3-2
25:00-30:00
7-1
30:00-35:00
8-5
35:00-40:00
13-0
40:00-45:00
1-3
45:00-50:00
2-10
50:00-55:00
6-1
55:00-60:00
9-2
60:00-65:00
1-4
80:00-85:00
3-3

Pressure By Period

PeriodTBL AttTBL xGNYI AttNYI xG
1st Period220.95130.62
2nd Period312.3280.10
3rd Period180.62160.82
Overtime10.1440.07
2OT30.7730.62

Source: NHL play-by-play shot attempts with Forensic Hockey xG where enriched shot rows are available.