Forensic Hockey
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Buffalo Sabres at Winnipeg Jets

BUF logo
AwayBuffalo SabresBUF
Final
1-4
WPG logo
HomeWinnipeg JetsWPG
Dec 5, 2025/Canada Life Centre / Winnipeg/TV: TSN3, MSG-B

Overview Signals

Score

1-4

Final

Shots

35-23

BUF / WPG

Power Play Goals

1-0

BUF / WPG

WPG Shot Edge

-12

Hits +11

The Story

WPG beat BUF 4-1. BUF generated the better chances (64% of the expected goals), but WPG found a way. E. Comrie (WPG) was the difference in net, +2.6 goals saved above expected.

Win Probability

Live chance of winning from the game state - score, time, strength

Pre-game projection: BUF 37% · WPG 63%

BUF 0%WPG 100%
Tension - how much the next goal swings itPeak P1 0:00 · 41%

Key Moments

  1. P1 04:24WPGgoal · 0-1+15% WP
  2. P1 14:44BUFgoal · 1-1+16% WP
  3. P2 02:22WPGgoal · 1-2+18% WP
  4. P2 18:42WPGgoal · 1-3+11% WP
  5. P3 19:26WPGgoal · 1-4+0% WP

Deserve-to-Win

Share of expected goals (chance quality), against the actual score

Final
BUF 64%
36% WPG
xG 3.63 · Goals 1Goals 4 · xG 2.05

Expected Goals - Cumulative

Who is earning the better chances over the game (goal ticks below)

BUF 3.63WPG 2.05

Momentum

Rolling 5-minute share of expected goals - who is pressing

WPG ▲BUF ▼

Scoring Chances by Danger

HighMediumLowBUF91313WPG3146

Chances by Score State

Expected goals (attempts) by the shooter's game state - where the chances came from

LeadingTiedTrailingBUF0.00 (0)0.42 (12)3.21 (55)WPG1.14 (28)0.91 (14)0.00 (0)

Goaltending - is the goalie stealing it?

GSAx = goals saved above expected (Forensic xG faced − goals against). Right of center = robbing the shooters; left = leaking.

U. LuukkonenBUFLeaking-1.03
58:30 · .864 SV% · 3 GA on 2.0 xG22 shots
E. ComrieWPG🔥 Stealing it+2.63
60:00 · .971 SV% · 1 GA on 3.6 xG35 shots
BUF logo

BUF

Attempts

67

Shots

35

Goals

1

xG

3.63

wrist: 32slap: 12unknown: 11
WPG logo

WPG

Attempts

42

Shots

23

Goals

4

xG

2.05

wrist: 23slap: 8unknown: 7

Rink Shot Map

NHL rink coordinates / Forensic xG marker size

BUFWPG109 attempts / 5 goals
BUF Shot P1 00:08 / xG 0.03BUF Shot P1 00:18 / xG 0.06BUF Shot P1 00:56 / xG 0.04BUF Missed P1 01:06 / xG N/ABUF Shot P1 01:11 / xG 0.03WPG Shot P1 01:33 / xG 0.13BUF Missed P1 02:01 / xG N/ABUF Shot P1 02:56 / xG 0.15BUF Shot P1 03:01 / xG 0.03BUF Blocked P1 03:19 / xG N/AWPG Shot P1 04:02 / xG 0.06WPG Shot P1 04:23 / xG 0.18WPG Goal P1 04:24 / xG 0.14WPG Blocked P1 05:53 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 06:15 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P1 06:51 / xG N/ABUF Shot P1 08:17 / xG 0.09BUF Shot P1 08:33 / xG 0.12BUF Shot P1 08:41 / xG 0.14BUF Missed P1 08:50 / xG N/ABUF Shot P1 09:28 / xG 0.18BUF Shot P1 11:19 / xG 0.07WPG Shot P1 12:03 / xG 0.06WPG Shot P1 12:07 / xG 0.03BUF Shot P1 12:45 / xG 0.03BUF Shot P1 13:05 / xG 0.03BUF Missed P1 13:15 / xG N/ABUF Missed P1 13:17 / xG N/ABUF Blocked P1 14:05 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 14:18 / xG N/ABUF Missed P1 14:41 / xG N/ABUF Shot P1 14:43 / xG 0.35BUF Goal P1 14:44 / xG 0.35BUF Missed P1 14:57 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 17:31 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P1 17:37 / xG N/AWPG Shot P1 17:48 / xG 0.09WPG Shot P1 17:55 / xG 0.08WPG Missed P1 19:13 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P1 19:43 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 19:56 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 00:13 / xG 0.08WPG Missed P2 00:25 / xG N/ABUF Shot P2 01:39 / xG 0.06BUF Shot P2 01:44 / xG 0.02WPG Goal P2 02:22 / xG 0.13WPG Missed P2 03:02 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 03:17 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 03:23 / xG 0.05WPG Shot P2 03:27 / xG 0.04BUF Missed P2 04:44 / xG N/ABUF Shot P2 05:32 / xG 0.03BUF Shot P2 06:11 / xG 0.03BUF Missed P2 06:53 / xG N/ABUF Shot P2 06:54 / xG 0.17BUF Shot P2 08:14 / xG 0.06WPG Missed P2 08:23 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 09:26 / xG 0.06BUF Missed P2 09:47 / xG N/ABUF Missed P2 09:55 / xG N/ABUF Shot P2 10:03 / xG 0.05BUF Missed P2 10:09 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 10:18 / xG 0.23WPG Shot P2 10:19 / xG 0.06WPG Missed P2 11:46 / xG N/ABUF Blocked P2 12:36 / xG N/ABUF Shot P2 12:39 / xG 0.12BUF Blocked P2 12:50 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 13:51 / xG N/ABUF Shot P2 14:35 / xG 0.06BUF Missed P2 15:32 / xG N/ABUF Missed P2 15:33 / xG N/ABUF Shot P2 16:17 / xG 0.12BUF Missed P2 16:51 / xG N/ABUF Missed P2 17:48 / xG N/ABUF Missed P2 18:26 / xG N/AWPG Goal P2 18:42 / xG 0.19BUF Missed P2 19:00 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 19:29 / xG 0.06BUF Shot P2 19:50 / xG 0.04WPG Missed P3 00:34 / xG N/ABUF Shot P3 01:14 / xG 0.07WPG Blocked P3 01:50 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 01:54 / xG 0.02BUF Blocked P3 05:15 / xG N/ABUF Blocked P3 06:45 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P3 09:53 / xG N/ABUF Missed P3 10:11 / xG N/ABUF Shot P3 10:12 / xG 0.18BUF Blocked P3 10:27 / xG N/ABUF Shot P3 10:32 / xG 0.04BUF Shot P3 11:04 / xG 0.05BUF Blocked P3 11:10 / xG N/ABUF Blocked P3 11:31 / xG N/ABUF Shot P3 11:33 / xG 0.21BUF Shot P3 12:27 / xG 0.07BUF Blocked P3 13:32 / xG N/ABUF Blocked P3 15:26 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 15:41 / xG 0.10WPG Missed P3 16:16 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 17:08 / xG 0.03WPG Shot P3 17:23 / xG 0.03BUF Shot P3 18:45 / xG 0.32BUF Shot P3 18:46 / xG 0.17BUF Missed P3 18:47 / xG N/ABUF Missed P3 18:48 / xG N/AWPG Goal P3 19:26 / xG 0.07BUF Shot P3 19:45 / xG 0.07WPG Shot P3 19:47 / xG 0.11

Five Minute Momentum

0:00-5:00
9-4
5:00-10:00
5-3
10:00-15:00
10-3
15:00-20:00
0-7
20:00-25:00
3-7
25:00-30:00
7-2
30:00-35:00
6-4
35:00-40:00
8-2
40:00-45:00
1-3
45:00-50:00
2-1
50:00-55:00
10-0
55:00-60:00
6-6

Pressure By Period

PeriodBUF AttBUF xGWPG AttWPG xG
1st Period241.70170.78
2nd Period240.76150.90
3rd Period191.18100.36

Source: NHL play-by-play shot attempts with Forensic Hockey xG where enriched shot rows are available.