Forensic Hockey
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New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights

NYI logo
AwayNew York IslandersNYI
Final / OT
4-3
VGK logo
HomeVegas Golden KnightsVGK
Nov 13, 2025/T-Mobile Arena / Paradise/TV: SN, MSGSN, SCRIPPS

Overview Signals

Score

4-3

Final / OT

Shots

24-29

NYI / VGK

Power Play Goals

1-0

NYI / VGK

VGK Shot Edge

+5

Hits +13

The Story

NYI beat VGK 4-3 in overtime. VGK generated the better chances (60% of the expected goals), but NYI found a way. A. Schmid (VGK) had a rough night, -1.3 goals saved above expected.

Win Probability

Live chance of winning from the game state - score, time, strength

Pre-game projection: NYI 39% · VGK 61%

NYI 74%VGK 26%
Tension - how much the next goal swings itPeak OT 0:00 · 91%

Key Moments

  1. P1 14:03NYIgoal · 1-0+18% WP
  2. P2 18:56VGKgoal · 2-1+21% WP
  3. P3 08:23VGKgoal · 2-2+38% WP
  4. P3 10:45VGKgoal · 2-3+33% WP
  5. P3 17:23NYIgoal · 3-3+36% WP
  6. OT 03:02NYIgoal · 4-3+53% WP

Deserve-to-Win

Share of expected goals (chance quality), against the actual score

Final
NYI 40%
60% VGK
xG 2.75 · Goals 4Goals 3 · xG 4.20

Expected Goals - Cumulative

Who is earning the better chances over the game (goal ticks below)

NYI 2.75VGK 4.20

Momentum

Rolling 5-minute share of expected goals - who is pressing

VGK ▲NYI ▼

Scoring Chances by Danger

HighMediumLowNYI6171VGK1397

Chances by Score State

Expected goals (attempts) by the shooter's game state - where the chances came from

LeadingTiedTrailingNYI1.33 (32)1.04 (16)0.38 (7)VGK0.16 (5)2.18 (28)1.87 (30)

Goaltending - is the goalie stealing it?

GSAx = goals saved above expected (Forensic xG faced − goals against). Right of center = robbing the shooters; left = leaking.

I. SorokinNYIBailing them out+1.20
61:46 · .897 SV% · 3 GA on 4.2 xG29 shots
A. SchmidVGKLeaking-1.25
62:31 · .833 SV% · 4 GA on 2.7 xG24 shots
NYI logo

NYI

Attempts

55

Shots

24

Goals

4

xG

2.75

wrist: 21unknown: 13snap: 10
VGK logo

VGK

Attempts

63

Shots

29

Goals

3

xG

4.20

wrist: 29unknown: 14snap: 11

Rink Shot Map

NHL rink coordinates / Forensic xG marker size

NYIVGK118 attempts / 7 goals
VGK Shot P1 00:27 / xG 0.03NYI Blocked P1 00:52 / xG N/ANYI Missed P1 01:37 / xG N/AVGK Shot P1 02:21 / xG 0.23VGK Blocked P1 02:35 / xG N/AVGK Shot P1 02:36 / xG 0.14VGK Shot P1 04:05 / xG 0.06VGK Blocked P1 04:26 / xG N/AVGK Shot P1 04:50 / xG 0.04NYI Blocked P1 05:26 / xG N/AVGK Missed P1 07:15 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P1 07:57 / xG N/AVGK Shot P1 09:02 / xG 0.02NYI Shot P1 09:17 / xG 0.06NYI Shot P1 09:18 / xG 0.26NYI Shot P1 09:28 / xG 0.05VGK Shot P1 09:56 / xG 0.34VGK Shot P1 10:06 / xG 0.29VGK Blocked P1 10:07 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 11:10 / xG 0.07VGK Shot P1 11:41 / xG 0.29VGK Missed P1 11:42 / xG N/AVGK Missed P1 13:23 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P1 13:39 / xG N/AVGK Missed P1 13:51 / xG N/ANYI Goal P1 14:03 / xG 0.06NYI Missed P1 15:21 / xG N/ANYI Missed P1 15:32 / xG N/AVGK Shot P1 16:18 / xG 0.04NYI Missed P1 17:28 / xG N/ANYI Goal P1 17:59 / xG 0.07NYI Missed P1 18:28 / xG N/AVGK Blocked P2 01:20 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 01:57 / xG 0.08NYI Blocked P2 02:06 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 02:19 / xG 0.14VGK Shot P2 04:34 / xG 0.06VGK Blocked P2 05:09 / xG N/AVGK Shot P2 05:17 / xG 0.12VGK Missed P2 05:46 / xG N/AVGK Missed P2 06:17 / xG N/AVGK Shot P2 06:23 / xG 0.29VGK Shot P2 06:24 / xG 0.24VGK Shot P2 06:27 / xG 0.09VGK Missed P2 06:28 / xG N/AVGK Missed P2 06:30 / xG N/AVGK Shot P2 06:51 / xG 0.11VGK Shot P2 06:53 / xG 0.19VGK Missed P2 07:16 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 08:14 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 08:29 / xG 0.10NYI Shot P2 08:30 / xG 0.21NYI Shot P2 09:08 / xG 0.02VGK Blocked P2 09:32 / xG N/AVGK Blocked P2 10:18 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 10:42 / xG N/AVGK Missed P2 12:47 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 13:04 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 13:25 / xG 0.09NYI Shot P2 13:30 / xG 0.22NYI Missed P2 14:56 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 15:56 / xG 0.08NYI Shot P2 16:06 / xG 0.10NYI Shot P2 16:27 / xG 0.13VGK Missed P2 17:31 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P2 18:02 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 18:35 / xG N/AVGK Goal P2 18:56 / xG 0.24NYI Blocked P2 19:29 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P2 19:49 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P3 00:15 / xG N/AVGK Shot P3 02:13 / xG 0.04VGK Missed P3 02:19 / xG N/AVGK Blocked P3 02:25 / xG N/AVGK Missed P3 03:42 / xG N/AVGK Missed P3 04:11 / xG N/AVGK Shot P3 04:23 / xG 0.02VGK Missed P3 04:57 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 05:06 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P3 05:38 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 06:20 / xG 0.08NYI Missed P3 06:54 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 07:00 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 07:32 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 07:44 / xG N/AVGK Missed P3 07:59 / xG N/AVGK Shot P3 08:21 / xG 0.16VGK Goal P3 08:23 / xG 0.27VGK Blocked P3 08:53 / xG N/AVGK Missed P3 10:33 / xG N/AVGK Shot P3 10:34 / xG 0.18VGK Blocked P3 10:44 / xG N/AVGK Goal P3 10:45 / xG 0.09VGK Shot P3 11:22 / xG 0.11NYI Missed P3 11:37 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 12:28 / xG N/AVGK Shot P3 12:51 / xG 0.04NYI Blocked P3 13:43 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 15:21 / xG 0.17NYI Shot P3 15:32 / xG 0.11VGK Missed P3 15:49 / xG N/AVGK Blocked P3 16:11 / xG N/AVGK Blocked P3 16:21 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P3 17:04 / xG N/ANYI Goal P3 17:23 / xG 0.10NYI Shot P3 18:20 / xG 0.06NYI Missed P3 18:26 / xG N/AVGK Blocked P3 19:29 / xG N/AVGK Missed P4 00:16 / xG N/ANYI Shot P4 01:25 / xG 0.26NYI Blocked P4 01:29 / xG N/AVGK Shot P4 02:16 / xG 0.19VGK Missed P4 02:17 / xG N/ANYI Shot P4 02:24 / xG 0.16VGK Blocked P4 02:41 / xG N/AVGK Shot P4 02:42 / xG 0.15VGK Shot P4 02:53 / xG 0.13NYI Goal P4 03:02 / xG 0.06

Five Minute Momentum

0:00-5:00
2-7
5:00-10:00
5-3
10:00-15:00
3-6
15:00-20:00
5-1
20:00-25:00
3-2
25:00-30:00
4-13
30:00-35:00
5-2
35:00-40:00
7-2
40:00-45:00
1-7
45:00-50:00
7-4
50:00-55:00
3-6
55:00-60:00
6-4
60:00-65:00
4-6

Pressure By Period

PeriodNYI AttNYI xGVGK AttVGK xG
1st Period150.57171.47
2nd Period191.18191.33
3rd Period170.52210.92
Overtime40.4860.48

Source: NHL play-by-play shot attempts with Forensic Hockey xG where enriched shot rows are available.