The Goaltending Verdict
Playoff series are decided at the nets. Goals saved above expected (GSAx) measures who won the goaltending battle in every series - with honest margins: when the gap is inside the noise, we call it even and make no claim.
85%
of series with a real goaltending edge go to the team that won the nets
168 of 197 series since 2010-11 with a clear GSAx edge (50 more were even in the crease - no verdict). The control: the team that created more chances won just 61%. Out-creating your opponent barely matters; out-goaltending them decides it.
Honest caveat: GSAx is the goals-vs-expected residual at one net - it can't separate a goalie standing on his head from opposing shooters going cold, and it shares goals-against with the result itself. Read it as a decomposition of how series were won, not a cause. Chance creation (xG) is the pre-outcome control.
Goal prevention, decomposed · 2025-26
Every team's goals-against split into the three things that drive it - shot quality, shot volume, and goaltending - each indexed to the league (lower is better). The method is Alan Ryder's 2004 shot-quality framework, run on our xG.
| Team | GA index | Shot quality | × Volume | × Goaltending | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 COL | 0.79 | 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.86 | goaltending |
 DAL | 0.88 | 0.97 | 0.94 | 0.96 | defense |
 TBL | 0.90 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.96 | defense |
 CAR | 0.94 | 1.08 | 0.86 | 1.01 | defense |
 MIN | 0.94 | 0.96 | 1.06 | 0.92 | goaltending |
 UTA | 0.94 | 0.98 | 0.94 | 1.02 | defense |
 BUF | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.04 | 0.90 | goaltending |
 NYI | 0.94 | 1.06 | 0.99 | 0.89 | goaltending |
 PHI | 0.95 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 1.07 | defense |
 WSH | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 0.94 | goaltending |
 OTT | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 1.13 | defense |
 LAK | 0.96 | 1.01 | 0.98 | 0.98 | goaltending |
 BOS | 0.97 | 1.05 | 1.07 | 0.87 | goaltending |
 VGK | 0.97 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 1.18 | goaltending |
 NYR | 0.97 | 0.99 | 1.04 | 0.95 | goaltending |
 CBJ | 0.99 | 1.01 | 1.04 | 0.94 | goaltending |
 NJD | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 1.01 | defense |
 MTL | 1.00 | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.97 | goaltending |
 DET | 1.01 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.06 | goaltending |
 STL | 1.01 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.06 | goaltending |
 CGY | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.07 | 0.92 | defense |
 WPG | 1.01 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.03 | goaltending |
 SEA | 1.03 | 0.93 | 1.06 | 1.04 | goaltending |
 PIT | 1.04 | 1.02 | 0.98 | 1.04 | goaltending |
 EDM | 1.05 | 1.01 | 0.96 | 1.08 | goaltending |
 NSH | 1.05 | 1.02 | 1.06 | 0.97 | defense |
 CHI | 1.07 | 1.05 | 1.08 | 0.95 | defense |
 FLA | 1.08 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 1.12 | goaltending |
 ANA | 1.12 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 1.06 | goaltending |
 SJS | 1.14 | 1.01 | 1.06 | 1.06 | defense |
 TOR | 1.17 | 0.98 | 1.17 | 1.02 | defense |
 VAN | 1.23 | 1.03 | 1.07 | 1.12 | goaltending |
Regular-season Vezina, playoff pumpkin?
Which goalies elevate their game in the playoffs vs the regular-season heroeswho fade. Career regular-season GSAx/100 vs playoffs, with the playoff rate regressed toward each goalie's own regular-season rate (a goalie needs ~2,200 shots before the number is mostly signal, so a single hot run doesn't qualify). Goalies with ≥500 career playoff shots faced.
Playoff risers
| Goalie | RS | PO | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. QuickNYR · 2,551 PO sh | -0.17 | +0.42 | +0.59 |
| J. KorpisaloBOS · 529 PO sh | -0.54 | -0.16 | +0.39 |
| C. AndersonBUF · 1,362 PO sh | -0.26 | +0.10 | +0.36 |
Regular-season heroes
| Goalie | RS | PO | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| I. BryzgalovANA · 648 PO sh | -0.44 | -1.15 | -0.71 |
| C. HellebuyckWPG · 1,735 PO sh | +0.89 | +0.25 | -0.64 |
| A. NiemiMTL · 1,249 PO sh | -0.32 | -0.83 | -0.51 |
| C. CrawfordCHI · 2,909 PO sh | +0.80 | +0.33 | -0.46 |
| M. FleuryMIN · 3,097 PO sh | +0.31 | -0.14 | -0.45 |
| D. DubnykCOL · 708 PO sh | -0.18 | -0.62 | -0.44 |
| S. SkinnerPIT · 1,358 PO sh | +0.10 | -0.34 | -0.44 |
| D. KuemperLAK · 1,096 PO sh | +0.27 | -0.09 | -0.36 |
Whose playoff exits are a goaltending story
Ranked by series lost to the team with better goaltending. Click a team for its full breakdown.
| Team | Series | W-L | Out-goalied L | Robbed | Avg GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 23 | 12-11 | 10 | 8 | +0.1 |
| MIN | 15 | 3-12 | 10 | 3 | -1.6 |
| NSH | 18 | 7-11 | 9 | 5 | +0.2 |
| TOR | 12 | 2-10 | 8 | 5 | -0.4 |
| TBL | 31 | 20-11 | 8 | 3 | +1.8 |
| WSH | 22 | 10-12 | 8 | 2 | +1.2 |
| DAL | 20 | 11-9 | 7 | 3 | -0.2 |
| STL | 19 | 9-10 | 7 | 3 | +0.5 |
| BOS | 27 | 15-12 | 6 | 5 | +2.0 |
| SJS | 17 | 9-8 | 6 | 5 | +0.4 |
| MTL | 18 | 9-9 | 6 | 4 | +0.8 |
| CAR | 20 | 13-7 | 6 | 3 | +0.5 |
| NYI | 15 | 7-8 | 6 | 2 | +1.7 |
| WPG | 12 | 4-8 | 6 | 2 | -0.9 |
| NYR | 24 | 13-11 | 6 | 1 | +3.8 |
| LAK | 19 | 10-9 | 6 | 0 | +1.6 |
| EDM | 18 | 10-8 | 5 | 4 | -1.6 |
| FLA | 18 | 12-6 | 5 | 2 | +1.2 |
| ANA | 14 | 6-8 | 5 | 1 | -0.3 |
| CGY | 8 | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | -0.0 |
| PHI | 11 | 4-7 | 5 | 0 | -1.1 |
| COL | 19 | 10-9 | 4 | 3 | -0.3 |
| CHI | 17 | 11-6 | 4 | 2 | +1.4 |
| DET | 8 | 2-6 | 3 | 2 | +2.1 |
| VGK | 21 | 15-6 | 3 | 1 | +1.4 |
| CBJ | 7 | 2-5 | 3 | 0 | +1.1 |
| NJD | 8 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | -0.7 |
| OTT | 9 | 3-6 | 3 | 0 | +2.0 |
| VAN | 12 | 6-6 | 2 | 1 | +1.6 |
| BUF | 3 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | +0.4 |
 ARI | 2 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | -2.1 |
 PHX | 4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | +3.6 |
| SEA | 2 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| UTA | 1 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | -3.9 |
The most stolen series since 2010-11
The team that earned the better chances lost anyway - beaten by a goalie who caught fire.
The skaters the playoffs robbed
Most playoff goals below individual expected goals (ixG) since 2010-11 - the scorers whose chances never paid off. The offensive mirror of a hot goalie.
| Skater | GP | G | ixG | Robbed | Sh% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Seguin | 151 | 29 | 39.1 | +10.1 | 6.8% |
| R. Nash | 85 | 17 | 26.0 | +9.0 | 5.9% |
| J. Jagr | 39 | 1 | 9.8 | +8.8 | 1.0% |
| C. Smith | 83 | 9 | 16.8 | +7.8 | 4.6% |
| V. Stalberg | 60 | 2 | 9.5 | +7.5 | 1.7% |
| P. Hornqvist | 104 | 28 | 35.1 | +7.1 | 8.7% |
| B. Gallagher | 79 | 14 | 20.7 | +6.7 | 6.2% |
| M. Hossa | 85 | 18 | 24.6 | +6.6 | 6.2% |
| W. Carrier | 109 | 6 | 11.9 | +5.9 | 4.5% |
| D. Winnik | 56 | 0 | 5.3 | +5.3 | 0.0% |
| R. Callahan | 94 | 14 | 19.3 | +5.3 | 6.9% |
| J. Abdelkader | 43 | 3 | 8.3 | +5.3 | 3.8% |
…and the cold-blooded finishers who beat their chances
| Skater | GP | G | ixG | Clutch | Sh% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | 102 | 55 | 25.7 | +29.3 | 19.0% |
| B. Marchand | 180 | 66 | 38.3 | +27.7 | 14.5% |
| C. Kreider | 135 | 50 | 27.1 | +22.9 | 18.7% |
| S. Stamkos | 128 | 50 | 27.1 | +22.9 | 15.6% |
| N. MacKinnon | 106 | 62 | 39.5 | +22.4 | 12.7% |
| M. Stone | 124 | 45 | 24.9 | +20.1 | 18.2% |
| V. Tarasenko | 132 | 51 | 31.6 | +19.4 | 14.0% |
| J. Guentzel | 81 | 43 | 24.8 | +18.2 | 18.0% |
Goalie regression watch · 2025-26
Each goalie's GSAx this season vs. his own career rate. Big +Heat = playing over his head (due to cool off); big −Heat = ice cold (due to bounce back).
Running hot
| Goalie | SA | GSAx | Now | Career | Heat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt | 1045 | +8.7 | +0.83 | -4.36 | +5.19 |
| D. Hildeby | 551 | +6.8 | +1.24 | -3.52 | +4.76 |
| D. Cooley | 857 | +12.4 | +1.45 | -2.79 | +4.24 |
| N. Tolopilo | 585 | -10.0 | -1.71 | -3.86 | +2.16 |
| J. Annunen | 712 | +8.3 | +1.17 | -0.93 | +2.10 |
| U. Luukkonen | 935 | +10.9 | +1.16 | -0.31 | +1.47 |
| D. Vladar | 1299 | +3.6 | +0.27 | -1.07 | +1.34 |
| A. Lyon | 984 | +10.4 | +1.06 | +0.05 | +1.01 |
Running cold
| Goalie | SA | GSAx | Now | Career | Heat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Meriläinen | 457 | -18.6 | -4.06 | +1.40 | -5.46 |
| A. Hill | 598 | -23.5 | -3.93 | +0.33 | -4.26 |
| J. Binnington | 1014 | -27.5 | -2.71 | +0.57 | -3.28 |
| S. Bobrovsky | 1261 | -23.8 | -1.89 | +1.08 | -2.97 |
| C. Talbot | 807 | -16.6 | -2.05 | +0.56 | -2.62 |
| F. Andersen | 863 | -12.7 | -1.47 | +0.98 | -2.45 |
| L. Ullmark | 1206 | -12.0 | -0.99 | +1.28 | -2.27 |
| A. Stolarz | 712 | -5.7 | -0.81 | +1.42 | -2.23 |
Biggest heater seasons ever (vs the goalie's own career)
| Goalie | SA | GSAx | Now | Career | Heat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt2025-26 | 1045 | +8.7 | +0.83 | -4.36 | +5.19 |
| D. Cooley2025-26 | 857 | +12.4 | +1.45 | -2.79 | +4.24 |
| M. Turco2010-11 | 807 | -6.7 | -0.83 | -4.38 | +3.56 |
| C. Hutton2017-18 | 814 | +24.8 | +3.05 | -0.33 | +3.38 |
| V. Husso2021-22 | 1243 | +24.8 | +1.99 | -0.92 | +2.91 |
| L. Ullmark2022-23 | 1469 | +50.3 | +3.42 | +0.57 | +2.85 |
| B. Elliott2011-12 | 982 | +28.9 | +2.95 | +0.18 | +2.77 |
| B. Elliott2015-16 | 1132 | +33.0 | +2.92 | +0.15 | +2.77 |
| B. Boucher2010-11 | 921 | +2.7 | +0.29 | -2.33 | +2.62 |
| T. Thomas2010-11 | 1828 | +55.0 | +3.01 | +0.58 | +2.43 |
| T. Greiss2015-16 | 1203 | +33.6 | +2.79 | +0.38 | +2.41 |
| C. Schneider2011-12 | 952 | +34.3 | +3.61 | +1.23 | +2.38 |
How to read this. Goaltending is measured as GSAx- goals saved above expected: the expected goals a team's goalies faced (shot quality, from our model) minus the goals they actually allowed. Positive = the goalie bailed his team out; negative = he sank it. SV% can't tell a robbery from an easy night; GSAx can. A goalie is 🔥 hotwhen his series rate beats his own career rate. “Stolen” = the team that clearly created the better chances (xG) lost anyway, to clearly better goaltending - both edges must beat their measured noise floors (a GSAx gap under 1.5 goals reads even: below that, the “better-goaltending” team historically won barely 40% of the time, i.e. the label means nothing). One honest limit: a goals-vs-expected residual can't separate hot goaltending from cold opposing shooting - they are the same number seen from opposite benches. Team-level goaltending, playoff series, 2010-11 to present (the xG-reliable era).