Forensic Hockey
← Scores

New York Islanders at St. Louis Blues

NYI logo
AwayNew York IslandersNYI
Final / OT
4-3
STL logo
HomeSt. Louis BluesSTL
Mar 10, 2026/Enterprise Center / St. Louis/TV: TNT, truTV, HBO MAX

Overview Signals

Score

4-3

Final / OT

Shots

49-23

NYI / STL

Power Play Goals

2-0

NYI / STL

STL Shot Edge

-26

Hits -4

The Story

NYI beat STL 4-3 in overtime. NYI earned it, owning 69% of the chance quality. NYI erased a 3-goal deficit. J. Hofer (STL) was the difference in net, +1.3 goals saved above expected.

Win Probability

Live chance of winning from the game state - score, time, strength

Pre-game projection: NYI 49% · STL 51%

NYI 86%STL 14%
Tension - how much the next goal swings itPeak OT 0:00 · 91%

Key Moments

  1. P1 04:06STLgoal · 0-1+17% WP
  2. P2 09:10STLgoal · 0-2+18% WP
  3. P2 17:50NYIgoal · 1-3+8% WP
  4. P3 05:52NYIgoal · 2-3+15% WP
  5. P3 06:52NYIgoal · 3-3+33% WP
  6. OT 02:11NYIgoal · 4-3+46% WP

Deserve-to-Win

Share of expected goals (chance quality), against the actual score

Final
NYI 69%
31% STL
xG 5.28 · Goals 4Goals 3 · xG 2.32

Expected Goals - Cumulative

Who is earning the better chances over the game (goal ticks below)

NYI 5.28STL 2.32

Momentum

Rolling 5-minute share of expected goals - who is pressing

STL ▲NYI ▼

Scoring Chances by Danger

HighMediumLowNYI92912STL6125

Chances by Score State

Expected goals (attempts) by the shooter's game state - where the chances came from

LeadingTiedTrailingNYI0.00 (0)1.25 (20)4.04 (54)STL1.64 (36)0.68 (9)0.00 (0)

Goaltending - is the goalie stealing it?

GSAx = goals saved above expected (Forensic xG faced − goals against). Right of center = robbing the shooters; left = leaking.

I. SorokinNYIAs expected-0.68
61:50 · .870 SV% · 3 GA on 2.3 xG23 shots
J. HoferSTLBailing them out+1.28
61:55 · .939 SV% · 4 GA on 5.3 xG49 shots
NYI logo

NYI

Attempts

74

Shots

50

Goals

4

xG

5.28

wrist: 37unknown: 13snap: 8
STL logo

STL

Attempts

45

Shots

23

Goals

3

xG

2.32

wrist: 19unknown: 12snap: 5

Rink Shot Map

NHL rink coordinates / Forensic xG marker size

NYISTL119 attempts / 7 goals
NYI Shot P1 00:28 / xG 0.09NYI Shot P1 00:29 / xG 0.05NYI Shot P1 01:18 / xG 0.05NYI Missed P1 01:51 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 02:59 / xG 0.02NYI Shot P1 03:56 / xG 0.11STL Goal P1 04:06 / xG 0.15NYI Shot P1 04:22 / xG 0.06NYI Shot P1 05:11 / xG 0.31NYI Shot P1 05:12 / xG 0.32NYI Missed P1 05:17 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P1 05:31 / xG N/ASTL Shot P1 07:18 / xG 0.07STL Shot P1 08:20 / xG 0.08NYI Shot P1 08:48 / xG 0.01NYI Missed P1 08:54 / xG N/ANYI Missed P1 09:01 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 09:02 / xG 0.06NYI Shot P1 09:40 / xG 0.05STL Blocked P1 09:57 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 10:17 / xG 0.01STL Missed P1 10:27 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 10:44 / xG 0.12STL Shot P1 11:10 / xG 0.05STL Blocked P1 13:31 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 14:17 / xG 0.04STL Missed P1 15:30 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P1 16:09 / xG N/ANYI Missed P1 16:13 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 16:53 / xG 0.14STL Shot P1 17:06 / xG 0.15NYI Shot P1 17:32 / xG 0.04NYI Shot P1 19:58 / xG 0.09NYI Shot P2 00:47 / xG 0.11NYI Blocked P2 01:01 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P2 01:08 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 01:49 / xG 0.07NYI Shot P2 02:09 / xG 0.05NYI Missed P2 03:15 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 03:20 / xG 0.05NYI Shot P2 03:34 / xG 0.13NYI Shot P2 03:59 / xG 0.05NYI Missed P2 04:10 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 04:32 / xG N/ASTL Missed P2 05:11 / xG N/ASTL Shot P2 05:48 / xG 0.10STL Shot P2 06:06 / xG 0.17STL Shot P2 06:07 / xG 0.11STL Blocked P2 07:59 / xG N/ASTL Missed P2 08:04 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 08:25 / xG 0.12NYI Shot P2 08:26 / xG 0.07STL Goal P2 09:10 / xG 0.06NYI Blocked P2 09:40 / xG N/ASTL Blocked P2 10:23 / xG N/ASTL Blocked P2 10:30 / xG N/ASTL Goal P2 10:37 / xG 0.17STL Blocked P2 11:14 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 11:28 / xG 0.10NYI Shot P2 11:28 / xG 0.11NYI Shot P2 11:47 / xG 0.08NYI Blocked P2 12:17 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 13:07 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P2 13:23 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P2 13:25 / xG N/ASTL Missed P2 13:54 / xG N/ASTL Blocked P2 15:01 / xG N/ASTL Shot P2 15:42 / xG 0.04STL Blocked P2 15:55 / xG N/ASTL Shot P2 16:52 / xG 0.08STL Missed P2 17:15 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P2 17:47 / xG N/ANYI Goal P2 17:50 / xG 0.15STL Shot P2 18:19 / xG 0.11STL Blocked P2 18:37 / xG N/ASTL Blocked P2 19:20 / xG N/ASTL Blocked P2 19:30 / xG N/ASTL Shot P2 19:51 / xG 0.14NYI Missed P3 00:30 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 00:32 / xG 0.05NYI Shot P3 00:34 / xG 0.23NYI Blocked P3 00:56 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 00:57 / xG N/ASTL Blocked P3 01:46 / xG N/ASTL Shot P3 02:26 / xG 0.04STL Shot P3 03:00 / xG 0.15STL Shot P3 03:01 / xG 0.11STL Missed P3 03:02 / xG N/ASTL Missed P3 03:58 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 04:53 / xG 0.09NYI Shot P3 05:32 / xG 0.11NYI Shot P3 05:48 / xG 0.07NYI Shot P3 05:50 / xG 0.28NYI Goal P3 05:52 / xG 0.32NYI Shot P3 06:32 / xG 0.09NYI Shot P3 06:46 / xG 0.21NYI Goal P3 06:52 / xG 0.23NYI Shot P3 07:29 / xG 0.14NYI Blocked P3 07:34 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P3 08:15 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 09:07 / xG 0.03NYI Shot P3 09:11 / xG 0.02NYI Missed P3 09:36 / xG N/ASTL Shot P3 09:57 / xG 0.16STL Shot P3 13:50 / xG 0.17STL Shot P3 14:03 / xG 0.06STL Missed P3 14:11 / xG N/ASTL Missed P3 14:58 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 16:43 / xG 0.06STL Shot P3 16:52 / xG 0.04STL Shot P3 17:44 / xG 0.05NYI Shot P3 19:42 / xG 0.22NYI Shot P3 19:43 / xG 0.06NYI Shot P3 19:54 / xG 0.07NYI Shot P3 19:58 / xG 0.03NYI Shot P4 00:41 / xG 0.06NYI Shot P4 01:39 / xG 0.11STL Shot P4 01:49 / xG 0.06NYI Goal P4 02:11 / xG 0.12

Five Minute Momentum

0:00-5:00
7-1
5:00-10:00
9-3
10:00-15:00
3-3
15:00-20:00
5-2
20:00-25:00
11-0
25:00-30:00
3-7
30:00-35:00
7-5
35:00-40:00
2-10
40:00-45:00
6-6
45:00-50:00
13-1
50:00-55:00
0-4
55:00-60:00
5-2
60:00-65:00
3-1

Pressure By Period

PeriodNYI AttNYI xGSTL AttSTL xG
1st Period241.5590.49
2nd Period231.11221.00
3rd Period242.33130.77
Overtime30.2910.06

Source: NHL play-by-play shot attempts with Forensic Hockey xG where enriched shot rows are available.