Forensic Hockey

Winnipeg Jets at San Jose Sharks

Mar 1, 2026/SAP Center at San Jose / San Jose/TV: TVAS, TSN3, NBCSCA

Overview Signals

Score

1-2

Final / OT

Shots

28-33

WPG / SJS

Power Play Goals

0-0

WPG / SJS

SJS Shot Edge

+5

Hits +5

The Story

SJS beat WPG 2-1 in overtime. Chances were close to even - SJS held 55% of the expected goals. A. Nedeljkovic (SJS) was the difference in net, +1.6 goals saved above expected.

Win Probability

Live chance of winning from the game state - score, time, strength

Pre-game projection: WPG 55% · SJS 45%

WPG 3%SJS 97%
Tension - how much the next goal swings itPeak OT 0:00 · 91%

Key Moments

  1. P1 02:44WPGgoal · 1-0+15% WP
  2. P3 01:47SJSgoal · 1-1+26% WP
  3. OT 01:40SJSgoal · 1-2+47% WP

Deserve-to-Win

Share of expected goals (chance quality), against the actual score

Final
WPG 45%
55% SJS
xG 2.58 · Goals 1Goals 2 · xG 3.21

Expected Goals - Cumulative

Who is earning the better chances over the game (goal ticks below)

WPG 2.58SJS 3.21

Momentum

Rolling 5-minute share of expected goals - who is pressing

SJSWPG

Scoring Chances by Danger

HighMediumLowWPG6814SJS81312

Chances by Score State

Expected goals (attempts) by the shooter's game state - where the chances came from

LeadingTiedTrailingWPG1.78 (27)0.81 (17)0.00 (0)SJS0.00 (0)1.68 (25)1.53 (41)

Goaltending - is the goalie stealing it?

GSAx = goals saved above expected (Forensic xG faced − goals against). Right of center = robbing the shooters; left = leaking.

C. HellebuyckWPGBailing them out+1.21
61:30 · .939 SV% · 2 GA on 3.2 xG33 shots
A. NedeljkovicSJSBailing them out+1.58
61:40 · .964 SV% · 1 GA on 2.6 xG28 shots
WPG logo

WPG

Attempts

44

Shots

28

Goals

1

xG

2.58

wrist: 27unknown: 11snap: 4
SJS logo

SJS

Attempts

66

Shots

33

Goals

2

xG

3.21

wrist: 29unknown: 17slap: 10

Rink Shot Map

NHL rink coordinates / Forensic xG marker size

WPGSJS110 attempts / 3 goals
WPG Shot P1 00:10 / xG 0.04SJS Missed P1 00:22 / xG N/AWPG Shot P1 01:07 / xG 0.04SJS Missed P1 01:36 / xG N/ASJS Shot P1 01:57 / xG 0.04WPG Missed P1 02:11 / xG N/ASJS Missed P1 02:30 / xG N/ASJS Shot P1 02:33 / xG 0.12SJS Shot P1 02:34 / xG 0.18WPG Goal P1 02:44 / xG 0.06WPG Shot P1 03:15 / xG 0.03WPG Blocked P1 03:19 / xG N/AWPG Shot P1 03:34 / xG 0.10WPG Blocked P1 04:21 / xG N/ASJS Missed P1 04:40 / xG N/ASJS Shot P1 05:18 / xG 0.03SJS Shot P1 05:43 / xG 0.07WPG Blocked P1 05:55 / xG N/ASJS Missed P1 07:02 / xG N/ASJS Blocked P1 07:12 / xG N/ASJS Blocked P1 07:20 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P1 08:09 / xG N/ASJS Shot P1 08:14 / xG 0.11WPG Shot P1 08:28 / xG 0.12SJS Shot P1 08:58 / xG 0.02SJS Missed P1 09:07 / xG N/ASJS Missed P1 09:10 / xG N/ASJS Blocked P1 10:31 / xG N/ASJS Shot P1 11:14 / xG 0.20SJS Shot P1 11:28 / xG 0.06SJS Shot P1 12:35 / xG 0.03SJS Shot P1 12:41 / xG 0.03SJS Blocked P1 13:46 / xG N/ASJS Blocked P1 13:55 / xG N/ASJS Missed P1 14:07 / xG N/ASJS Blocked P1 14:19 / xG N/ASJS Blocked P1 14:29 / xG N/ASJS Shot P1 14:37 / xG 0.08WPG Shot P1 14:59 / xG 0.03SJS Missed P1 15:05 / xG N/ASJS Blocked P1 16:01 / xG N/ASJS Blocked P1 17:03 / xG N/ASJS Shot P1 17:14 / xG 0.06SJS Shot P1 17:16 / xG 0.03WPG Shot P1 17:33 / xG 0.04WPG Blocked P1 17:36 / xG N/ASJS Missed P1 18:57 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 00:28 / xG 0.19WPG Shot P2 01:07 / xG 0.09WPG Shot P2 01:10 / xG 0.10WPG Blocked P2 01:29 / xG N/ASJS Shot P2 01:41 / xG 0.04SJS Blocked P2 02:08 / xG N/ASJS Missed P2 02:22 / xG N/ASJS Blocked P2 02:33 / xG N/ASJS Shot P2 02:40 / xG 0.18WPG Missed P2 03:50 / xG N/ASJS Missed P2 05:11 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 05:59 / xG 0.16WPG Shot P2 06:27 / xG 0.24WPG Blocked P2 07:08 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 10:40 / xG 0.02WPG Shot P2 12:17 / xG 0.02WPG Blocked P2 12:31 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 14:33 / xG N/ASJS Blocked P2 15:05 / xG N/ASJS Shot P2 17:00 / xG 0.03WPG Shot P2 17:13 / xG 0.27WPG Shot P2 17:13 / xG 0.23WPG Missed P2 17:29 / xG N/ASJS Shot P2 18:17 / xG 0.04WPG Blocked P3 00:35 / xG N/ASJS Shot P3 00:42 / xG 0.19SJS Shot P3 00:44 / xG 0.07SJS Missed P3 01:08 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 01:17 / xG 0.14SJS Shot P3 01:45 / xG 0.13SJS Goal P3 01:47 / xG 0.14WPG Shot P3 02:01 / xG 0.04WPG Shot P3 02:09 / xG 0.02SJS Blocked P3 02:51 / xG N/ASJS Shot P3 03:02 / xG 0.12SJS Shot P3 03:55 / xG 0.04WPG Shot P3 05:44 / xG 0.03SJS Missed P3 06:00 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 06:44 / xG 0.03SJS Shot P3 07:15 / xG 0.04SJS Blocked P3 07:39 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 07:51 / xG 0.05WPG Missed P3 08:00 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P3 08:52 / xG N/ASJS Shot P3 09:19 / xG 0.03SJS Missed P3 09:26 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 11:27 / xG 0.07SJS Shot P3 12:33 / xG 0.15SJS Shot P3 13:48 / xG 0.29SJS Blocked P3 13:58 / xG N/ASJS Blocked P3 14:06 / xG N/ASJS Shot P3 14:14 / xG 0.26SJS Shot P3 14:15 / xG 0.15WPG Shot P3 14:53 / xG 0.03SJS Blocked P3 16:03 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 16:52 / xG 0.22SJS Shot P3 17:25 / xG 0.08SJS Shot P3 17:55 / xG 0.06WPG Missed P3 18:37 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 19:34 / xG 0.14SJS Missed P3 19:56 / xG N/AWPG Shot P4 00:38 / xG 0.04SJS Goal P4 01:40 / xG 0.12

Five Minute Momentum

0:00-5:00
8-7
5:00-10:00
3-9
10:00-15:00
1-11
15:00-20:00
2-6
20:00-25:00
5-5
25:00-30:00
3-1
30:00-35:00
4-0
35:00-40:00
3-3
40:00-45:00
4-8
45:00-50:00
5-5
50:00-55:00
2-6
55:00-60:00
3-4
60:00-65:00
1-1

Pressure By Period

PeriodWPG AttWPG xGSJS AttSJS xG
1st Period140.46331.04
2nd Period151.3290.29
3rd Period140.77231.77
Overtime10.0410.12

Source: NHL play-by-play shot attempts with Forensic Hockey xG where enriched shot rows are available.