Forensic Hockey

Winnipeg Jets at Utah Hockey Club

Dec 21, 2025/Delta Center / Salt Lake City/TV: TSN3, Utah16

Overview Signals

Score

3-4

Final / OT

Shots

26-22

WPG / UTA

Power Play Goals

1-0

WPG / UTA

UTA Shot Edge

-4

Hits -11

The Story

UTA beat WPG 4-3 in overtime. UTA earned it, owning 61% of the chance quality. C. Hellebuyck (WPG) had a rough night, -1.7 goals saved above expected.

Win Probability

Live chance of winning from the game state - score, time, strength

Pre-game projection: WPG 49% · UTA 51%

WPG 6%UTA 94%
Tension - how much the next goal swings itPeak OT 0:00 · 91%

Key Moments

  1. P1 05:20UTAgoal · 0-1+18% WP
  2. P1 09:31UTAgoal · 0-2+16% WP
  3. P2 03:01UTAgoal · 0-3+10% WP
  4. P3 15:23WPGgoal · 2-3+9% WP
  5. P3 15:48WPGgoal · 3-3+41% WP
  6. OT 00:13UTAgoal · 3-4+46% WP

Deserve-to-Win

Share of expected goals (chance quality), against the actual score

Final
WPG 39%
61% UTA
xG 1.49 · Goals 3Goals 4 · xG 2.33

Expected Goals - Cumulative

Who is earning the better chances over the game (goal ticks below)

WPG 1.49UTA 2.33

Momentum

Rolling 5-minute share of expected goals - who is pressing

UTAWPG

Scoring Chances by Danger

HighMediumLowWPG2816UTA5116

Chances by Score State

Expected goals (attempts) by the shooter's game state - where the chances came from

LeadingTiedTrailingWPG0.00 (0)0.13 (4)1.36 (51)UTA1.96 (42)0.37 (10)0.00 (0)

Goaltending - is the goalie stealing it?

GSAx = goals saved above expected (Forensic xG faced − goals against). Right of center = robbing the shooters; left = leaking.

C. HellebuyckWPGLeaking-1.67
60:13 · .818 SV% · 4 GA on 2.3 xG22 shots
K. VejmelkaUTALeaking-1.51
60:13 · .885 SV% · 3 GA on 1.5 xG26 shots
WPG logo

WPG

Attempts

55

Shots

26

Goals

3

xG

1.49

snap: 19unknown: 15slap: 12
UTA logo

UTA

Attempts

52

Shots

22

Goals

4

xG

2.33

unknown: 17snap: 13slap: 13

Rink Shot Map

NHL rink coordinates / Forensic xG marker size

WPGUTA107 attempts / 7 goals
UTA Missed P1 00:54 / xG N/AUTA Shot P1 01:39 / xG 0.18UTA Missed P1 01:46 / xG N/AWPG Shot P1 03:46 / xG 0.08WPG Shot P1 03:58 / xG 0.04UTA Missed P1 05:17 / xG N/AUTA Goal P1 05:20 / xG 0.08WPG Blocked P1 07:20 / xG N/AWPG Shot P1 07:41 / xG 0.10WPG Blocked P1 07:45 / xG N/AWPG Shot P1 07:55 / xG 0.02UTA Blocked P1 08:50 / xG N/AUTA Goal P1 09:31 / xG 0.18UTA Shot P1 10:57 / xG 0.10UTA Blocked P1 12:00 / xG N/AUTA Blocked P1 14:43 / xG N/AUTA Blocked P1 14:56 / xG N/AUTA Shot P1 15:29 / xG 0.17WPG Missed P1 16:00 / xG N/AUTA Shot P1 16:22 / xG 0.05UTA Blocked P1 16:30 / xG N/AUTA Shot P1 17:56 / xG 0.03WPG Blocked P1 18:36 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P1 18:49 / xG N/AWPG Shot P1 18:59 / xG 0.21UTA Shot P2 00:35 / xG 0.04WPG Shot P2 00:44 / xG 0.07WPG Shot P2 00:47 / xG 0.02WPG Missed P2 00:52 / xG N/AUTA Shot P2 01:40 / xG 0.01UTA Missed P2 02:08 / xG N/AUTA Blocked P2 02:19 / xG N/AUTA Shot P2 02:25 / xG 0.12UTA Goal P2 03:01 / xG 0.10UTA Blocked P2 03:10 / xG N/AUTA Shot P2 03:23 / xG 0.03WPG Missed P2 03:42 / xG N/AUTA Missed P2 04:01 / xG N/AUTA Blocked P2 04:04 / xG N/AUTA Missed P2 04:26 / xG N/AUTA Blocked P2 04:29 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 04:44 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 05:03 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 06:31 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 06:46 / xG N/AUTA Blocked P2 07:09 / xG N/AUTA Missed P2 07:51 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 08:33 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 10:00 / xG 0.04WPG Goal P2 11:18 / xG 0.08UTA Blocked P2 11:24 / xG N/AUTA Shot P2 11:30 / xG 0.07WPG Shot P2 12:08 / xG 0.01UTA Blocked P2 12:41 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 13:10 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 13:25 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 13:40 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 13:53 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 14:20 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 14:21 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 14:29 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 14:43 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 15:11 / xG 0.01UTA Shot P2 16:22 / xG 0.12UTA Blocked P2 16:39 / xG N/AUTA Missed P2 17:08 / xG N/AUTA Shot P2 17:20 / xG 0.10UTA Missed P2 17:25 / xG N/AUTA Missed P2 18:49 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 19:22 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 19:26 / xG 0.14WPG Shot P2 19:56 / xG 0.01WPG Missed P3 00:45 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 02:47 / xG 0.05WPG Shot P3 02:51 / xG 0.03WPG Shot P3 03:16 / xG 0.03WPG Shot P3 04:21 / xG 0.05WPG Shot P3 04:29 / xG 0.07WPG Blocked P3 04:37 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 05:34 / xG 0.02WPG Shot P3 05:45 / xG 0.03WPG Blocked P3 07:38 / xG N/AUTA Shot P3 08:32 / xG 0.10UTA Shot P3 08:33 / xG 0.29UTA Missed P3 08:35 / xG N/AUTA Shot P3 09:54 / xG 0.08UTA Shot P3 09:55 / xG 0.29UTA Shot P3 10:52 / xG 0.07UTA Blocked P3 11:28 / xG N/AUTA Missed P3 11:46 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 12:05 / xG 0.08WPG Shot P3 12:19 / xG 0.01UTA Blocked P3 12:32 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 13:04 / xG 0.06WPG Missed P3 13:39 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P3 13:44 / xG N/AWPG Missed P3 14:03 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P3 15:12 / xG N/AWPG Goal P3 15:23 / xG 0.05WPG Goal P3 15:48 / xG 0.16UTA Shot P3 16:00 / xG 0.03UTA Missed P3 17:06 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 17:21 / xG 0.01WPG Missed P3 18:59 / xG N/AUTA Blocked P3 19:11 / xG N/AUTA Blocked P3 19:17 / xG N/AUTA Goal P4 00:13 / xG 0.08

Five Minute Momentum

0:00-5:00
2-3
5:00-10:00
4-4
10:00-15:00
0-4
15:00-20:00
4-4
20:00-25:00
5-12
25:00-30:00
4-2
30:00-35:00
11-3
35:00-40:00
4-6
40:00-45:00
7-0
45:00-50:00
3-5
50:00-55:00
6-4
55:00-60:00
5-4
60:00-65:00
0-1

Pressure By Period

PeriodWPG AttWPG xGUTA AttUTA xG
1st Period100.45150.79
2nd Period240.39230.59
3rd Period210.65130.86
Overtime00.0010.08

Source: NHL play-by-play shot attempts with Forensic Hockey xG where enriched shot rows are available.