Forensic Hockey

Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders

Dec 19, 2025/UBS Arena / Elmont/TV: NHLN, SN, MSGSN

Overview Signals

Score

4-1

Final

Shots

31-24

VAN / NYI

Power Play Goals

1-0

VAN / NYI

NYI Shot Edge

-7

Hits +11

The Story

VAN beat NYI 4-1. Chances were close to even - VAN held 50% of the expected goals. T. Demko (VAN) was the difference in net, +1.8 goals saved above expected.

Win Probability

Live chance of winning from the game state - score, time, strength

Pre-game projection: VAN 42% · NYI 58%

VAN 100%NYI 0%
Tension - how much the next goal swings itPeak P1 0:00 · 43%

Key Moments

  1. P1 08:57VANgoal · 1-0+17% WP
  2. P1 10:35VANgoal · 2-0+18% WP
  3. P1 15:47VANgoal · 3-0+11% WP
  4. P3 14:55NYIgoal · 3-1+0% WP
  5. P3 18:39VANgoal · 4-1+0% WP

Deserve-to-Win

Share of expected goals (chance quality), against the actual score

Final
VAN 50%
50% NYI
xG 2.86 · Goals 4Goals 1 · xG 2.85

Expected Goals - Cumulative

Who is earning the better chances over the game (goal ticks below)

VAN 2.86NYI 2.85

Momentum

Rolling 5-minute share of expected goals - who is pressing

NYIVAN

Scoring Chances by Danger

HighMediumLowVAN71212NYI7107

Chances by Score State

Expected goals (attempts) by the shooter's game state - where the chances came from

LeadingTiedTrailingVAN2.51 (50)0.35 (4)0.00 (0)NYI0.00 (0)0.31 (9)2.54 (44)

Goaltending - is the goalie stealing it?

GSAx = goals saved above expected (Forensic xG faced − goals against). Right of center = robbing the shooters; left = leaking.

T. DemkoVANBailing them out+1.85
60:00 · .958 SV% · 1 GA on 2.8 xG24 shots
I. SorokinNYIAs expected-0.15
56:21 · .900 SV% · 3 GA on 2.8 xG30 shots
VAN logo

VAN

Attempts

54

Shots

31

Goals

4

xG

2.86

wrist: 24unknown: 14snap: 5
NYI logo

NYI

Attempts

53

Shots

24

Goals

1

xG

2.85

unknown: 15wrist: 15slap: 8

Rink Shot Map

NHL rink coordinates / Forensic xG marker size

VANNYI107 attempts / 5 goals
NYI Blocked P1 00:20 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P1 00:22 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 01:26 / xG 0.10NYI Missed P1 01:28 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 04:00 / xG 0.07NYI Shot P1 05:09 / xG 0.07NYI Missed P1 05:51 / xG N/AVAN Shot P1 06:15 / xG 0.09NYI Shot P1 06:45 / xG 0.03VAN Shot P1 07:27 / xG 0.12NYI Shot P1 07:54 / xG 0.03VAN Blocked P1 08:38 / xG N/AVAN Goal P1 08:57 / xG 0.13NYI Missed P1 09:27 / xG N/AVAN Shot P1 09:46 / xG 0.04NYI Shot P1 10:10 / xG 0.04VAN Goal P1 10:35 / xG 0.06VAN Shot P1 11:02 / xG 0.17VAN Shot P1 11:03 / xG 0.12VAN Blocked P1 11:54 / xG N/AVAN Blocked P1 12:25 / xG N/ANYI Missed P1 12:48 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P1 13:12 / xG N/AVAN Blocked P1 14:15 / xG N/AVAN Blocked P1 15:09 / xG N/AVAN Shot P1 15:27 / xG 0.05VAN Goal P1 15:47 / xG 0.17NYI Shot P1 15:54 / xG 0.05NYI Missed P1 16:38 / xG N/AVAN Missed P1 18:03 / xG N/AVAN Blocked P1 18:19 / xG N/AVAN Blocked P1 18:29 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P1 18:44 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 18:53 / xG 0.11NYI Missed P1 18:58 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P2 00:19 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P2 00:39 / xG N/AVAN Shot P2 01:29 / xG 0.05VAN Shot P2 02:30 / xG 0.09VAN Missed P2 02:31 / xG N/AVAN Blocked P2 02:34 / xG N/AVAN Shot P2 03:35 / xG 0.04VAN Shot P2 03:53 / xG 0.02VAN Blocked P2 04:08 / xG N/AVAN Missed P2 04:41 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P2 05:24 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 06:07 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P2 06:18 / xG N/AVAN Shot P2 07:10 / xG 0.08VAN Missed P2 08:39 / xG N/AVAN Shot P2 08:54 / xG 0.22VAN Shot P2 08:55 / xG 0.23VAN Shot P2 08:56 / xG 0.24NYI Missed P2 09:18 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 10:18 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 10:39 / xG 0.22NYI Missed P2 10:49 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P2 11:43 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 12:06 / xG 0.06NYI Missed P2 12:22 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 12:37 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 12:38 / xG 0.24NYI Shot P2 12:41 / xG 0.02VAN Shot P2 13:45 / xG 0.04NYI Shot P2 14:27 / xG 0.25VAN Missed P2 15:28 / xG N/AVAN Shot P2 16:33 / xG 0.17VAN Shot P2 16:49 / xG 0.19VAN Blocked P2 17:27 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 18:47 / xG N/AVAN Blocked P2 19:30 / xG N/AVAN Shot P2 19:54 / xG 0.09VAN Shot P3 01:55 / xG 0.02VAN Shot P3 02:30 / xG 0.03VAN Shot P3 03:27 / xG 0.05VAN Missed P3 03:28 / xG N/AVAN Shot P3 03:29 / xG 0.10NYI Shot P3 04:13 / xG 0.07VAN Missed P3 04:28 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P3 04:57 / xG N/AVAN Shot P3 05:50 / xG 0.01NYI Blocked P3 07:05 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 08:39 / xG 0.07VAN Blocked P3 09:07 / xG N/AVAN Shot P3 09:22 / xG 0.02NYI Shot P3 09:53 / xG 0.14NYI Blocked P3 09:58 / xG N/AVAN Shot P3 10:06 / xG 0.12VAN Blocked P3 10:09 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 11:13 / xG 0.06VAN Blocked P3 11:27 / xG N/AVAN Shot P3 11:31 / xG 0.03NYI Missed P3 13:17 / xG N/AVAN Missed P3 14:14 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P3 14:22 / xG N/ANYI Goal P3 14:55 / xG 0.19VAN Missed P3 15:22 / xG N/AVAN Shot P3 15:38 / xG 0.04NYI Blocked P3 16:09 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 16:48 / xG 0.08NYI Shot P3 17:24 / xG 0.03NYI Shot P3 18:31 / xG 0.29VAN Goal P3 18:39 / xG 0.01NYI Blocked P3 19:40 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 19:49 / xG 0.31NYI Shot P3 19:49 / xG 0.26NYI Shot P3 19:53 / xG 0.05

Five Minute Momentum

0:00-5:00
0-5
5:00-10:00
5-5
10:00-15:00
6-3
15:00-20:00
6-5
20:00-25:00
8-2
25:00-30:00
5-4
30:00-35:00
1-10
35:00-40:00
6-1
40:00-45:00
6-2
45:00-50:00
3-4
50:00-55:00
5-4
55:00-60:00
3-8

Pressure By Period

PeriodVAN AttVAN xGNYI AttNYI xG
1st Period170.96180.50
2nd Period201.46170.79
3rd Period170.44181.55

Source: NHL play-by-play shot attempts with Forensic Hockey xG where enriched shot rows are available.