Forensic Hockey

Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues

Dec 17, 2025/Enterprise Center / St. Louis/TV: SN, FDSNMW

Overview Signals

Score

0-1

Final

Shots

24-26

WPG / STL

Power Play Goals

0-0

WPG / STL

STL Shot Edge

+2

Hits -7

The Story

STL beat WPG 1-0. STL earned it, owning 67% of the chance quality. C. Hellebuyck (WPG) was the difference in net, +1.8 goals saved above expected.

Win Probability

Live chance of winning from the game state - score, time, strength

Pre-game projection: WPG 53% · STL 47%

WPG 1%STL 99%
Tension - how much the next goal swings itPeak P3 16:00 · 55%

Key Moments

  1. P2 13:17STLgoal · 0-1+24% WP

Deserve-to-Win

Share of expected goals (chance quality), against the actual score

Final
WPG 33%
67% STL
xG 1.37 · Goals 0Goals 1 · xG 2.81

Expected Goals - Cumulative

Who is earning the better chances over the game (goal ticks below)

WPG 1.37STL 2.81

Momentum

Rolling 5-minute share of expected goals - who is pressing

STLWPG

Scoring Chances by Danger

HighMediumLowWPG2616STL7145

Chances by Score State

Expected goals (attempts) by the shooter's game state - where the chances came from

LeadingTiedTrailingWPG0.00 (0)1.00 (35)0.37 (25)STL0.84 (20)1.97 (29)0.00 (0)

Goaltending - is the goalie stealing it?

GSAx = goals saved above expected (Forensic xG faced − goals against). Right of center = robbing the shooters; left = leaking.

C. HellebuyckWPGBailing them out+1.81
59:43 · .962 SV% · 1 GA on 2.8 xG26 shots
J. HoferSTLBailing them out+1.37
60:00 · 1.000 SV% · 0 GA on 1.4 xG24 shots
WPG logo

WPG

Attempts

60

Shots

24

Goals

0

xG

1.37

wrist: 23unknown: 16tip-in: 8
STL logo

STL

Attempts

49

Shots

26

Goals

1

xG

2.81

wrist: 26unknown: 9snap: 5

Rink Shot Map

NHL rink coordinates / Forensic xG marker size

WPGSTL109 attempts / 1 goals
WPG Shot P1 00:55 / xG 0.16STL Shot P1 01:36 / xG 0.05STL Shot P1 02:46 / xG 0.29STL Shot P1 04:01 / xG 0.23STL Missed P1 04:02 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 05:09 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 05:28 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P1 05:32 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 07:59 / xG N/ASTL Missed P1 08:39 / xG N/ASTL Missed P1 08:54 / xG N/ASTL Missed P1 09:22 / xG N/ASTL Shot P1 09:29 / xG 0.03STL Shot P1 09:32 / xG 0.18STL Shot P1 09:32 / xG 0.12STL Shot P1 09:33 / xG 0.16STL Shot P1 09:38 / xG 0.09STL Shot P1 09:44 / xG 0.06STL Shot P1 09:52 / xG 0.13STL Missed P1 10:04 / xG N/ASTL Shot P1 10:40 / xG 0.03STL Missed P1 12:27 / xG N/ASTL Missed P1 12:33 / xG N/ASTL Blocked P1 12:45 / xG N/AWPG Shot P1 13:27 / xG 0.02WPG Shot P1 14:02 / xG 0.03WPG Missed P1 14:52 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P1 17:28 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P1 18:05 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 18:24 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 18:55 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P1 19:00 / xG N/AWPG Missed P1 19:01 / xG N/AWPG Shot P1 19:06 / xG 0.04WPG Shot P1 19:40 / xG 0.06WPG Shot P1 19:47 / xG 0.07WPG Blocked P1 19:53 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 00:23 / xG 0.25WPG Blocked P2 00:24 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 00:55 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 01:02 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 03:11 / xG 0.10WPG Shot P2 04:00 / xG 0.12WPG Blocked P2 04:13 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P2 04:34 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 04:48 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 04:54 / xG 0.03STL Missed P2 05:32 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 05:43 / xG N/ASTL Missed P2 05:54 / xG N/ASTL Blocked P2 05:56 / xG N/ASTL Blocked P2 06:30 / xG N/AWPG Shot P2 07:52 / xG 0.01WPG Shot P2 08:34 / xG 0.05STL Shot P2 08:46 / xG 0.10STL Shot P2 08:47 / xG 0.13STL Shot P2 08:50 / xG 0.06WPG Shot P2 09:21 / xG 0.03WPG Missed P2 09:57 / xG N/ASTL Shot P2 10:27 / xG 0.13STL Shot P2 10:51 / xG 0.08WPG Shot P2 12:29 / xG 0.02WPG Missed P2 12:34 / xG N/ASTL Goal P2 13:17 / xG 0.09STL Missed P2 13:57 / xG N/ASTL Shot P2 15:07 / xG 0.05WPG Shot P2 15:42 / xG 0.04STL Missed P2 16:46 / xG N/ASTL Shot P2 16:58 / xG 0.04STL Blocked P2 17:05 / xG N/AWPG Missed P2 17:25 / xG N/ASTL Missed P2 18:36 / xG N/ASTL Blocked P2 18:41 / xG N/ASTL Shot P2 18:49 / xG 0.16STL Blocked P2 18:52 / xG N/ASTL Shot P2 18:53 / xG 0.18STL Shot P2 18:54 / xG 0.16STL Shot P2 19:48 / xG 0.10WPG Missed P3 00:49 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P3 01:38 / xG N/ASTL Shot P3 02:01 / xG 0.03STL Missed P3 02:25 / xG N/ASTL Shot P3 02:42 / xG 0.04WPG Missed P3 03:04 / xG N/ASTL Blocked P3 03:31 / xG N/ASTL Missed P3 04:17 / xG N/AWPG Missed P3 05:31 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 06:32 / xG 0.05WPG Missed P3 06:45 / xG N/AWPG Missed P3 07:01 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 07:35 / xG 0.03WPG Blocked P3 08:03 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P3 08:11 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P3 08:24 / xG N/AWPG Missed P3 08:30 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P3 09:17 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 09:24 / xG 0.08WPG Shot P3 09:42 / xG 0.03WPG Shot P3 10:23 / xG 0.04WPG Blocked P3 12:29 / xG N/AWPG Shot P3 13:17 / xG 0.01STL Shot P3 13:30 / xG 0.06WPG Shot P3 13:36 / xG 0.01WPG Shot P3 15:33 / xG 0.08WPG Shot P3 15:52 / xG 0.01WPG Missed P3 15:55 / xG N/AWPG Blocked P3 16:39 / xG N/ASTL Blocked P3 17:04 / xG N/ASTL Blocked P3 19:02 / xG N/A

Five Minute Momentum

0:00-5:00
1-4
5:00-10:00
4-10
10:00-15:00
3-5
15:00-20:00
10-0
20:00-25:00
10-0
25:00-30:00
5-7
30:00-35:00
2-4
35:00-40:00
2-11
40:00-45:00
3-5
45:00-50:00
12-0
50:00-55:00
4-1
55:00-60:00
4-2

Pressure By Period

PeriodWPG AttWPG xGSTL AttSTL xG
1st Period180.39191.38
2nd Period190.65221.30
3rd Period230.3480.13

Source: NHL play-by-play shot attempts with Forensic Hockey xG where enriched shot rows are available.