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Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

TBL logo
AwayTampa Bay LightningTBL
Final
1-2
NYI logo
HomeNew York IslandersNYI
Dec 2, 2025/UBS Arena / Elmont/TV: The Spot, MSGSN

Overview Signals

Score

1-2

Final

Shots

31-24

TBL / NYI

Power Play Goals

0-0

TBL / NYI

NYI Shot Edge

-7

Hits +5

The Story

NYI beat TBL 2-1. TBL generated the better chances (64% of the expected goals), but NYI found a way. I. Sorokin (NYI) was the difference in net, +2.6 goals saved above expected.

Win Probability

Live chance of winning from the game state - score, time, strength

Pre-game projection: TBL 56% · NYI 44%

TBL 1%NYI 99%
Tension - how much the next goal swings itPeak P3 19:00 · 55%

Key Moments

  1. P2 00:55NYIgoal · 0-1+20% WP
  2. P3 05:30NYIgoal · 0-2+18% WP
  3. P3 16:26TBLgoal · 1-2+9% WP

Deserve-to-Win

Share of expected goals (chance quality), against the actual score

Final
TBL 64%
36% NYI
xG 3.60 · Goals 1Goals 2 · xG 1.99

Expected Goals - Cumulative

Who is earning the better chances over the game (goal ticks below)

TBL 3.60NYI 1.99

Momentum

Rolling 5-minute share of expected goals - who is pressing

NYI ▲TBL ▼

Scoring Chances by Danger

HighMediumLowTBL10165NYI4128

Chances by Score State

Expected goals (attempts) by the shooter's game state - where the chances came from

LeadingTiedTrailingTBL0.00 (0)0.87 (22)2.74 (52)NYI0.98 (28)1.02 (16)0.00 (0)

Goaltending - is the goalie stealing it?

GSAx = goals saved above expected (Forensic xG faced − goals against). Right of center = robbing the shooters; left = leaking.

A. VasilevskiyTBLAs expected-0.01
56:40 · .917 SV% · 2 GA on 2.0 xG24 shots
I. SorokinNYI🔥 Stealing it+2.60
60:00 · .968 SV% · 1 GA on 3.6 xG31 shots
TBL logo

TBL

Attempts

74

Shots

31

Goals

1

xG

3.60

unknown: 22snap: 14wrist: 13
NYI logo

NYI

Attempts

44

Shots

24

Goals

2

xG

1.99

wrist: 18snap: 11unknown: 7

Rink Shot Map

NHL rink coordinates / Forensic xG marker size

TBLNYI118 attempts / 3 goals
TBL Shot P1 00:36 / xG 0.04TBL Missed P1 00:46 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P1 00:59 / xG N/ATBL Shot P1 01:03 / xG 0.06TBL Shot P1 01:05 / xG 0.12NYI Shot P1 01:07 / xG 0.22NYI Shot P1 01:40 / xG 0.02NYI Blocked P1 04:46 / xG N/ANYI Missed P1 05:12 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 05:27 / xG 0.11TBL Shot P1 06:11 / xG 0.09NYI Missed P1 08:39 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P1 08:57 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 09:04 / xG 0.04TBL Missed P1 09:52 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 10:44 / xG 0.15NYI Shot P1 10:48 / xG 0.07TBL Shot P1 10:59 / xG 0.07TBL Shot P1 11:05 / xG 0.03TBL Missed P1 11:23 / xG N/ATBL Shot P1 11:26 / xG 0.18TBL Shot P1 12:32 / xG 0.01TBL Missed P1 14:46 / xG N/ATBL Missed P1 15:19 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P1 15:45 / xG N/ATBL Missed P1 16:11 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 16:37 / xG 0.05NYI Shot P1 16:44 / xG 0.07TBL Blocked P1 17:08 / xG N/ANYI Shot P1 17:27 / xG 0.05NYI Missed P1 18:19 / xG N/ATBL Shot P1 19:17 / xG 0.19TBL Missed P1 19:25 / xG N/ANYI Missed P1 19:40 / xG N/ATBL Shot P2 00:22 / xG 0.07TBL Blocked P2 00:40 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 00:53 / xG 0.07NYI Goal P2 00:55 / xG 0.17TBL Shot P2 01:20 / xG 0.09TBL Shot P2 01:37 / xG 0.04TBL Missed P2 01:50 / xG N/ATBL Shot P2 01:52 / xG 0.07TBL Shot P2 02:12 / xG 0.06TBL Blocked P2 02:29 / xG N/ANYI Missed P2 02:51 / xG N/ATBL Shot P2 04:39 / xG 0.16TBL Shot P2 05:46 / xG 0.13TBL Blocked P2 05:53 / xG N/ATBL Shot P2 06:47 / xG 0.07NYI Shot P2 07:10 / xG 0.08NYI Shot P2 07:13 / xG 0.04TBL Shot P2 08:04 / xG 0.05TBL Blocked P2 08:09 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 08:11 / xG 0.03NYI Blocked P2 09:52 / xG N/ATBL Missed P2 10:16 / xG N/ATBL Shot P2 10:34 / xG 0.25TBL Shot P2 10:35 / xG 0.23TBL Missed P2 10:36 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P2 10:38 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 12:02 / xG 0.05TBL Blocked P2 12:14 / xG N/ATBL Shot P2 12:22 / xG 0.02TBL Shot P2 12:35 / xG 0.14NYI Missed P2 15:10 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 15:53 / xG 0.09TBL Missed P2 16:59 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P2 18:09 / xG N/ANYI Shot P2 18:13 / xG 0.15NYI Blocked P2 19:59 / xG N/ATBL Shot P3 00:39 / xG 0.17NYI Shot P3 01:22 / xG 0.17NYI Missed P3 01:23 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P3 03:01 / xG N/ATBL Missed P3 03:09 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 04:13 / xG 0.06NYI Shot P3 04:17 / xG 0.03NYI Missed P3 05:24 / xG N/ANYI Goal P3 05:30 / xG 0.09TBL Shot P3 06:21 / xG 0.25TBL Blocked P3 06:22 / xG N/ATBL Missed P3 06:23 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P3 06:38 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 06:40 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 07:09 / xG 0.06TBL Blocked P3 07:28 / xG N/ATBL Missed P3 07:30 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P3 07:40 / xG N/ATBL Shot P3 07:42 / xG 0.07TBL Missed P3 08:28 / xG N/ATBL Missed P3 08:37 / xG N/ATBL Missed P3 09:11 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P3 09:11 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P3 09:21 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 10:17 / xG N/ATBL Missed P3 11:00 / xG N/ANYI Shot P3 11:33 / xG 0.05NYI Shot P3 12:45 / xG 0.07TBL Shot P3 13:22 / xG 0.11TBL Shot P3 13:23 / xG 0.21TBL Blocked P3 13:24 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P3 13:25 / xG N/ATBL Missed P3 13:43 / xG N/ANYI Blocked P3 13:56 / xG N/ATBL Shot P3 15:07 / xG 0.22TBL Blocked P3 15:58 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P3 16:09 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P3 16:19 / xG N/ATBL Goal P3 16:26 / xG 0.06NYI Missed P3 17:10 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 17:43 / xG N/ATBL Shot P3 18:19 / xG 0.06TBL Blocked P3 18:29 / xG N/ATBL Missed P3 18:34 / xG N/ATBL Shot P3 18:37 / xG 0.26TBL Missed P3 18:38 / xG N/ATBL Blocked P3 18:42 / xG N/ANYI Missed P3 19:42 / xG N/A

Five Minute Momentum

0:00-5:00
5-3
5:00-10:00
3-4
10:00-15:00
6-2
15:00-20:00
6-5
20:00-25:00
9-3
25:00-30:00
5-4
30:00-35:00
8-1
35:00-40:00
1-5
40:00-45:00
2-5
45:00-50:00
12-5
50:00-55:00
6-4
55:00-60:00
11-3

Pressure By Period

PeriodTBL AttTBL xGNYI AttNYI xG
1st Period200.80140.77
2nd Period231.39130.69
3rd Period311.42170.53

Source: NHL play-by-play shot attempts with Forensic Hockey xG where enriched shot rows are available.