All methods
Series odds
ExperimentalA derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read as informed opinion.
What it means
The chance each team wins the series, from team strength and home ice.
How it's computed
Elo gap → per-game win chance → a best-of-7 walk over the real home-ice pattern.
What's validated - and what's not
Calibrated by bucket on 293 past series, but fit and checked on the same data - no true out-of-sample test yet. The underlying Elo is leakage-free.
Coverage
2007-08 to present.
Provenance
Forensic Hockey original - built from official NHL play-by-play and box scores.
A first-party construct. We never adopt an idea on authority alone; the methodology stance is recorded in our research ledger.
Our research ledger - every source we tested, adopted, or rejected →Tiers are a promise, not a style. Reconciled is checked against the official NHL record; Validated is tested on data the model never fit; Experimental is a derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read it as informed opinion. When in doubt we take the lower tier.