All methods
Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM)
Validated modelTested on data the model never fit, with the accuracy published.
What it means
A skater's even-strength impact on chance rates with linemates and competition regressed away.
How it's computed
Ridge regression over every 5v5 stint; the penalty is chosen by cross-validation.
What's validated - and what's not
Cross-validated with split-half reliability checks. Still a shrunk single-season estimate - differences of a few hundredths are noise.
Coverage
2010-11 to present (needs shift data).
Provenance
Macdonald, “A Regression-Based Adjusted Plus-Minus Statistic for NHL Players” (2011).
Ridge regression over our 5v5 stints; the penalty is chosen by cross-validation, with split-half reliability checks.
Our research ledger - every source we tested, adopted, or rejected →Tiers are a promise, not a style. Reconciled is checked against the official NHL record; Validated is tested on data the model never fit; Experimental is a derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read it as informed opinion. When in doubt we take the lower tier.