Player projection

Validated model

Tested on data the model never fit, with the accuracy published.

What it means

Next-season production projected from recent seasons, aged along the curve.

How it's computed

Weighted three-year baseline (5/4/3) plus a survivorship-corrected aging delta.

What's validated - and what's not

Backtested on past seasons against what actually happened - beats carry-forward and league-mean baselines on mean error.

Coverage

Needs at least one prior season.

Provenance

Forensic Hockey original - built from official NHL play-by-play and box scores.

A first-party construct. We never adopt an idea on authority alone; the methodology stance is recorded in our research ledger.

Our research ledger - every source we tested, adopted, or rejected →

Tiers are a promise, not a style. Reconciled is checked against the official NHL record; Validated is tested on data the model never fit; Experimental is a derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read it as informed opinion. When in doubt we take the lower tier.