All methods
Luck (finishing vs chances)
ExperimentalA derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read as informed opinion.
What it means
The gap between results and chance quality, converted to standings points.
How it's computed
Goal-minus-xG differentials mapped to points via an in-data fit.
What's validated - and what's not
The points conversion is calibrated on our own data, but "luck" here bundles real finishing skill and model blind spots with true variance - elite shooters will read lucky every year.
Coverage
2010-11 to present.
Provenance
Forensic Hockey original - built from official NHL play-by-play and box scores.
A first-party construct. We never adopt an idea on authority alone; the methodology stance is recorded in our research ledger.
Our research ledger - every source we tested, adopted, or rejected →Tiers are a promise, not a style. Reconciled is checked against the official NHL record; Validated is tested on data the model never fit; Experimental is a derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read it as informed opinion. When in doubt we take the lower tier.