Forensic Hockey
All methods

Series goaltending verdict

Experimental

A derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read as informed opinion.

What it means

Which team truly won the nets in a playoff series - and whether that decided it.

How it's computed

Per-series GSAx for both teams; verdicts are issued only beyond measured noise floors.

What's validated - and what's not

Above the floors, the better-nets team won 85% of decided series (teams with only the chance edge: 61%) - measured association across 247 series, not causation. GSAx itself is unvalidated for goalies.

Coverage

Playoffs, 2010-11 to present.

Provenance

Schuckers, “Statistical Evaluation of Ice Hockey Goaltending” (2016).

Measured association across 247 series (better nets won 85% of decided series), not causation. GSAx is unvalidated for goalies.

Our research ledger - every source we tested, adopted, or rejected →

Tiers are a promise, not a style. Reconciled is checked against the official NHL record; Validated is tested on data the model never fit; Experimental is a derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read it as informed opinion. When in doubt we take the lower tier.