All methods
Power rating (Elo)
Validated modelTested on data the model never fit, with the accuracy published.
What it means
A rolling team-strength rating updated after every game.
How it's computed
538-style Elo, margin-damped, with season carry-over and regression to the mean.
What's validated - and what's not
Computed strictly chronologically - every rating uses only games already played, so its forecasts are honest by construction. Forecast accuracy is checked by bucket on past series.
Coverage
2007-08 to present.
Provenance
Forensic Hockey original - built from official NHL play-by-play and box scores.
A first-party construct. We never adopt an idea on authority alone; the methodology stance is recorded in our research ledger.
Our research ledger - every source we tested, adopted, or rejected →Tiers are a promise, not a style. Reconciled is checked against the official NHL record; Validated is tested on data the model never fit; Experimental is a derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read it as informed opinion. When in doubt we take the lower tier.