All methods
Contract surplus value
ExperimentalA derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read as informed opinion.
What it means
The market value of a player's production minus what his contract pays.
How it's computed
A per-position $/win line fit on signed contracts × wins above replacement − cap hit.
What's validated - and what's not
The market fit is transparent but untested out-of-sample, and it rides Game Score Value Added upstream - treat verdicts as a structured opinion with honest bands, not an appraisal.
Coverage
Current contracts; production inputs 2010-11 on.
Provenance
Forensic Hockey original - built from official NHL play-by-play and box scores.
A first-party construct. We never adopt an idea on authority alone; the methodology stance is recorded in our research ledger.
Our research ledger - every source we tested, adopted, or rejected →Tiers are a promise, not a style. Reconciled is checked against the official NHL record; Validated is tested on data the model never fit; Experimental is a derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read it as informed opinion. When in doubt we take the lower tier.