All methods
Contract projection
ExperimentalA derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read as informed opinion.
What it means
A pending free agent's likely next-deal term and AAV range.
How it's computed
CapWages signing histories → term classifier + AAV-as-cap-share regression, with bands from holdout error.
What's validated - and what's not
Chronologically backtested against recent signings, but contract markets move, team context matters, and one star negotiation can miss badly - read the range, not just the point estimate.
Coverage
Pending free agents with current contract and production data.
Provenance
Forensic Hockey original, trained on CapWages signing histories and current NHL production inputs.
Chronological holdout against recent signings; the public range is the measured AAV error band, and the page states the market-context limits.
Our research ledger - every source we tested, adopted, or rejected →Tiers are a promise, not a style. Reconciled is checked against the official NHL record; Validated is tested on data the model never fit; Experimental is a derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read it as informed opinion. When in doubt we take the lower tier.