All methods
Aging curve
ExperimentalA derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read as informed opinion.
What it means
How production typically rises and falls with age.
How it's computed
Paired same-player year-over-year deltas (the delta method), survivorship-corrected.
What's validated - and what's not
Corrects the classic survivor bias, and the projection built on it is backtested - but the curve itself has no out-of-sample test of its own.
Coverage
Ages 18-38, built from 2007-08 on.
Provenance
Forensic Hockey original - built from official NHL play-by-play and box scores.
A first-party construct. We never adopt an idea on authority alone; the methodology stance is recorded in our research ledger.
Our research ledger - every source we tested, adopted, or rejected →Tiers are a promise, not a style. Reconciled is checked against the official NHL record; Validated is tested on data the model never fit; Experimental is a derived construct without out-of-sample validation - read it as informed opinion. When in doubt we take the lower tier.