Carter Hart

True talent (confidence-adjusted)

Goaltending is noisy: one season of save % or GSAx is mostly luck (a goalie needs ~5,000 shots before the number is mostly signal). The “true” value regresses small samples toward the league average, and we rank that true value vs the league; GSAx is the era-fair measure (it’s already vs expected), while save % is the raw rate.

His goaltending holds up in the playoffs - about the same when it matters.