Forensic Hockey

Action Impact

Every on-ice action - shots, faceoffs, takeaways, giveaways, hits, penalties - valued by how much it changes the chance of scoring the next goal, then summed. It sees the build-up a box score misses, and tracks points closely.

Leaderboard

league average 4.3 · 918 qualified
#PlayerAction ImpactxAIFinishingGP
1L. DraisaitlC27.915.3+12.571
2T. ThompsonC23.613.3+10.376
3B. PointC23.316.6+6.777
4J. TavaresC22.419.1+3.275
5W. NylanderR22.313.0+9.482
6N. KadriC21.918.4+3.582
7N. HischierC21.617.9+3.775
8K. ConnorL21.514.4+7.182
9A. OvechkinL21.310.3+11.065
10J. GuentzelC20.917.4+3.680
11S. ReinhartC20.815.3+5.679
12D. PastrnakR20.814.0+6.882
13M. ScheifeleC20.514.2+6.382
14D. LarkinC20.119.3+0.882
15C. CaufieldR19.713.1+6.682
16A. TuchR19.612.1+7.582
17A. DeBrincatR19.113.6+5.582
18N. MacKinnonC18.918.2+0.779
19J. RobertsonL18.711.8+6.982
20S. CrosbyC18.516.4+2.180
21N. KucherovR18.412.4+6.078
22A. MatthewsC18.317.0+1.367
23B. HorvatC18.317.1+1.281
24T. HertlC18.117.1+1.173
25N. SuzukiC18.013.1+5.082

Box score vs the eye in the sky (forwards)

Where Action Impact and Game Score most disagree - a diagnostic, not a verdict.

Most dominant single games

1S. LaughtonPHI vs DET2024-12-12+1.90
2J. Eriksson EkMIN vs SJS2025-04-09+1.73
3A. FantilliCBJ @ TOR2025-01-22+1.69
4W. JohnstonDAL @ VGK2025-01-28+1.67
5M. RantanenCOL @ PIT2024-12-10+1.63
6M. CelebriniSJS @ MIN2025-04-09+1.63
7A. FantilliCBJ @ NYR2025-03-09+1.61
8B. HaytonUTA @ LAK2025-02-22+1.61
9J. TavaresTOR @ WPG2024-10-28+1.61
10T. HertlVGK vs LAK2025-03-09+1.60

What every action is worth

The average swing in next-goal probability - measured, not assumed.

Goal
+0.481
Takeaway
+0.011
Shot on goal
+0.006
Faceoff win
+0.004
Missed shot
+0.003
Blocked shot
+0.002
Hit
-0.001
Giveaway
-0.011
Penalty
-0.050