Forensic report
51 ingested shots · flurry-adjusted xG · deserve-to-win meter
TBL
- Goals
- 4
- xG (flurry)
- 0.12
- xG (raw)
- 0.12
- Deserve %
- 31.4%
- Finishing luck
- +3.88
BUF
- Goals
- 7
- xG (flurry)
- 0.27
- xG (raw)
- 0.27
- Deserve %
- 68.6%
- Finishing luck
- +6.73
Deserve-to-win uses league-average goaltending assumption (MoneyPuck-style). Positive luck means outscoring flurry-adjusted expected goals; negative means underperforming shot quality.
Box score
Forwards
| # | Player | G | A | P | +/- | S | H | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | V. Lecavalier | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 19:13 | |
| 26 | M. St. Louis | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 | |
| 11 | J. Halpern | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:05 | |
| 10 | J. Jokinen | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 18:22 | |
| 42 | J. Lessard | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 14:10 | |
| 7 | M. Ouellet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16:55 | |
| 16 | J. Ward | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 05:17 | |
| 21 | M. Darche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 20:22 | |
| 24 | A. Karlsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 07:24 | |
| 29 | C. MacDonald | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 17:39 | |
| 61 | K. Stewart | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 04:52 | |
| 74 | N. Tarnasky | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 0 | 12:52 |
Defense
Shot map
51 model xG shots in warehouse
High danger (xG ≥ 25%)Medium (xG 12–25%)Low (xG 5–12%)Very low (xG < 5%)Goal
Play-by-play
- P3 19:54BUFGoalJochen Hecht, Jason Pominville
- P3 18:24—Penalty—
- P3 17:48TBLShot on goalMartin St. Louis
- P3 16:07BUFGoalThomas Vanek, Derek Roy, Drew Stafford
- P3 16:05BUFShot on goalDerek Roy
- P3 13:14BUFGoalThomas Vanek, Derek Roy, Drew Stafford
- P3 10:22BUFShot on goalDrew Stafford
- P3 10:06TBLShot on goalFilip Kuba
- P3 08:50BUFShot on goalJochen Hecht
- P3 08:37TBLShot on goalJeff Halpern
- P3 08:25BUFGoalThomas Vanek, Derek Roy, Drew Stafford
- P3 07:16BUFShot on goalAles Kotalik
- P3 06:58BUFShot on goalDaniel Paille
- P3 05:19BUFGoalJochen Hecht, Paul Gaustad, Jason Pominville
- P3 05:03BUFGoalJason Pominville, Paul Gaustad
- P3 05:00BUFShot on goalJochen Hecht
- P3 03:08TBLShot on goalMartin St. Louis
- P3 01:38BUFShot on goalMike Weber
- P3 01:19BUFShot on goalPaul Gaustad
- P3 01:14BUFShot on goalToni Lydman
- P3 01:02BUFShot on goalPaul Gaustad
- P2 19:50TBLShot on goalMartin St. Louis
- P2 19:08TBLShot on goalCraig MacDonald
- P2 18:40—Penalty—
- P2 18:11TBLGoalVincent Lecavalier, Junior Lessard, Paul Ranger
- P2 16:20BUFShot on goalMaxim Afinogenov
- P2 13:44TBLShot on goalNick Tarnasky
- P2 10:57TBLShot on goalShane O'Brien
- P2 07:31BUFShot on goalPatrick Kaleta
- P2 05:06TBLGoalVincent Lecavalier, Jussi Jokinen, Martin St. Louis
- P2 04:19TBLShot on goalMathieu Darche
- P2 00:52—Penalty—
- P2 00:43TBLShot on goalMartin St. Louis
- P1 18:12TBLShot on goalVincent Lecavalier
- P1 18:00TBLShot on goalKarl Stewart
- P1 16:18TBLShot on goalMathieu Darche
- P1 14:13BUFShot on goalJochen Hecht
- P1 14:08BUFShot on goalJochen Hecht
- P1 13:07BUFGoalJason Pominville, Jochen Hecht, Henrik Tallinder
- P1 12:31BUFShot on goalDerek Roy
- P1 10:36TBLGoalMartin St. Louis, Dan Boyle, Vincent Lecavalier
- P1 10:20TBLShot on goalDan Boyle
- P1 10:09TBLShot on goalVincent Lecavalier
- P1 09:18—Penalty—
- P1 09:18—Penalty—
- P1 09:18—Penalty—
- P1 09:15BUFShot on goalSteve Bernier
- P1 09:13BUFShot on goalAndrej Sekera
- P1 08:14BUFShot on goalToni Lydman
- P1 07:29—Penalty—
- P1 07:28BUFShot on goalJochen Hecht
- P1 06:36BUFShot on goalHenrik Tallinder
- P1 06:09BUFShot on goalMaxim Afinogenov
- P1 05:22BUFShot on goalSteve Bernier
- P1 04:38BUFShot on goalDrew Stafford
- P1 02:50TBLGoalJeff Halpern, Paul Ranger
- P1 01:28BUFShot on goalJason Pominville
- P1 00:51BUFShot on goalPaul Gaustad
TBL vs BUF · 58 events