Projections · Forensic Hockey

COL leads the league with 121 projected final points. The playoff field is nearly set — 16 teams have greater than 90% probability of qualifying.

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#	Team	Now	Proj. Points	Playoffs	Division	Strength
1	COLIN	121	121 (121–121)	100%	100%	73
2	CARIN	113	113 (113–113)	100%	100%	67
3	DALIN	112	112 (112–112)	100%	0%	66
4	BUFIN	109	109 (109–109)	100%	100%	64
5	TBLIN	106	106 (106–106)	100%	0%	64
6	MTLIN	106	106 (106–106)	100%	0%	62
7	MININ	104	104 (104–104)	100%	0%	61
8	BOSIN	100	100 (100–100)	100%	0%	59
9	OTTIN	99	99 (99–99)	100%	0%	59
10	PITIN	98	98 (98–98)	100%	0%	58
11	PHIIN	98	98 (98–98)	100%	0%	57
12	VGKIN	95	95 (95–95)	100%	100%	56
13	EDMIN	93	93 (93–93)	100%	0%	55
14	UTAIN	92	92 (92–92)	100%	0%	56
15	ANAIN	92	92 (92–92)	100%	0%	53
16	LAKIN	90	90 (90–90)	100%	0%	52
17	WSH	95	95 (95–95)	0%	0%	57
18	DET	92	92 (92–92)	0%	0%	53
19	CBJ	92	92 (92–92)	0%	0%	54
20	NYI	91	91 (91–91)	0%	0%	53
21	NJD	87	87 (87–87)	0%	0%	51
22	STL	86	86 (86–86)	0%	0%	50
23	NSH	86	86 (86–86)	0%	0%	50
24	SJS	86	86 (86–86)	0%	0%	49
25	FLA	84	84 (84–84)	0%	0%	49
26	WPG	82	82 (82–82)	0%	0%	48
27	SEA	79	79 (79–79)	0%	0%	46
28	TOR	78	78 (78–78)	0%	0%	46
29	CGY	77	77 (77–77)	0%	0%	45
30	NYR	77	77 (77–77)	0%	0%	47
31	CHI	72	72 (72–72)	0%	0%	42
32	VAN	58	58 (58–58)	0%	0%	34

Projections: 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of remaining games. Team strength blends Pythagorean expected win% (Dayaratna & Miller 2013, exponent 2.15) with current points pace, weighted by schedule completion. Home-ice advantage: +5.4% per game. Playoff probability counts standard 3+2 wildcard format.