ForensicHockey

NSH defeated STL 5–2. The result matched the underlying play — NSH led in expected goals (0.5 to 0.5 xG).

Forensic report

67 ingested shots · flurry-adjusted xG · deserve-to-win meter

Process edge: NSH

NSH

Goals
5
xG (flurry)
0.51
xG (raw)
0.51
Deserve %
52.8%
Finishing luck
+4.49

STL

Goals
2
xG (flurry)
0.46
xG (raw)
0.46
Deserve %
47.2%
Finishing luck
+1.54

Deserve-to-win uses league-average goaltending assumption (MoneyPuck-style). Positive luck means outscoring flurry-adjusted expected goals; negative means underperforming shot quality.

Box score

Forwards

#PlayerGAP+/-SHBLKTOI
9F. Forsberg30321016:20
90R. O'Reilly02220018:45
49R. Schaefer10112011:51
58M. Bunting10112015:30
56E. Haula01110117:19
91S. Stamkos011-11015:53
17T. Jost00011011:44
40F. Svechkov00000012:31
47M. McCarron00001213:41
71M. Wood000-12014:27
77L. Evangelista00020016:03
81J. Marchessault00011016:34

Defense

#PlayerGAP+/-SHBLKTOI
59R. Josi02221023:41
48N. Perbix01110118:25
76B. Skjei01120119:44
37N. Blankenburg00000117:23
41N. Hague000-11117:18
83A. Wilsby00020018:06

Goalies

PlayerSAGASV%TOIDec
J. Annunen00NaN%00:00
J. Saros22290.9%60:00W

Shot map

67 model xG shots in warehouse

High danger (xG ≥ 25%)Medium (xG 12–25%)Low (xG 5–12%)Very low (xG < 5%)Goal

Play-by-play

  • P3 19:49STLFaceoffHugh McGing
  • P3 19:49Stoppage
  • P3 19:39NSHBlocked shotErik Haula
  • P3 18:20STLShot on goalDalibor Dvorsky
  • P3 17:31STLMissed shotPavel Buchnevich
  • P3 17:12STLFaceoffRobert Thomas
  • P3 17:12Stoppage
  • P3 17:12Penalty
  • P3 16:51STLShot on goalMathieu Joseph
  • P3 16:49STLBlocked shotAlexey Toropchenko
  • P3 16:18STLHitCam Fowler
  • P3 16:09NSHFaceoffMichael McCarron
  • P3 16:09NSHGoalFilip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly
  • P3 15:18NSHShot on goalMichael Bunting
  • P3 13:58Takeaway
  • P3 13:46STLHitJustin Faulk
  • P3 11:31Takeaway
  • P3 11:19Giveaway
  • P3 11:02NSHFaceoffRyan O'Reilly
  • P3 11:02Stoppage
  • P3 10:56NSHFaceoffRyan O'Reilly
  • P3 10:56Stoppage
  • P3 10:53STLShot on goalHugh McGing
  • P3 10:50STLMissed shotPius Suter
  • P3 10:33STLBlocked shotAlexey Toropchenko
  • P3 10:18NSHHitRoman Josi
  • P3 09:53NSHFaceoffMichael McCarron
  • P3 09:53Stoppage
  • P3 09:40NSHFaceoffMichael McCarron
  • P3 09:40Stoppage
  • P3 09:39STLShot on goalLogan Mailloux
  • P3 09:35STLBlocked shotMatt Luff
  • P3 09:30STLShot on goalMatt Luff
  • P3 08:59STLMissed shotJake Neighbours
  • P3 08:50STLFaceoffBrayden Schenn
  • P3 08:50Stoppage
  • P3 08:46Giveaway
  • P3 08:45Giveaway
  • P3 08:29NSHFaceoffRyan O'Reilly
  • P3 08:29STLGoalDalibor Dvorsky, Jake Neighbours, Pavel Buchnevich
  • P3 08:17STLShot on goalPavel Buchnevich
  • P3 07:44NSHFaceoffMichael McCarron
  • P3 07:44Penalty
  • P3 07:42STLBlocked shotRobby Fabbri
  • P3 07:32delayed penalty
  • P3 07:10NSHShot on goalBrady Skjei
  • P3 06:51Giveaway
  • P3 06:31NSHShot on goalSteven Stamkos
  • P3 06:29NSHBlocked shotNicolas Hague
  • P3 06:24NSHFaceoffFedor Svechkov
  • P3 06:24Stoppage
  • P3 06:23NSHMissed shotSteven Stamkos
  • P3 06:02STLMissed shotMathieu Joseph
  • P3 06:00STLMissed shotRobert Thomas
  • P3 05:51NSHBlocked shotFilip Forsberg
  • P3 05:18STLFaceoffRobert Thomas
  • P3 05:18Stoppage
  • P3 04:50Takeaway
  • P3 04:42STLShot on goalTyler Tucker
  • P3 04:39STLFaceoffOskar Sundqvist
  • P3 04:39Stoppage
  • P3 04:36STLMissed shotOskar Sundqvist
  • P3 04:33NSHHitMatthew Wood
  • P3 02:35STLShot on goalTyler Tucker
  • P3 01:46STLBlocked shotLogan Mailloux
  • P3 01:32STLHitLogan Mailloux
  • P3 01:28NSHMissed shotMatthew Wood
  • P3 01:27NSHShot on goalMatthew Wood
  • P3 01:22Giveaway
  • P3 01:12NSHFaceoffFedor Svechkov
  • P3 01:12Stoppage
  • P3 00:44STLShot on goalBrayden Schenn
  • P3 00:30NSHFaceoffErik Haula
  • P3 00:30Stoppage
  • P3 00:28NSHShot on goalLuke Evangelista
  • P3 00:08STLHitDalibor Dvorsky
  • P3 00:00STLFaceoffDalibor Dvorsky
  • P2 19:39STLShot on goalPavel Buchnevich
  • P2 19:14NSHFaceoffErik Haula
  • P2 19:14Stoppage
  • P2 19:12NSHShot on goalNick Blankenburg
  • P2 18:45NSHFaceoffRyan O'Reilly
  • P2 18:45NSHGoalReid Schaefer, Roman Josi
  • P2 18:38NSHBlocked shotReid Schaefer
  • P2 18:08STLHitJake Neighbours
  • P2 18:01NSHMissed shotErik Haula
  • P2 16:26NSHHitMatthew Wood
  • P2 16:17STLHitRobert Thomas
  • P2 16:13STLBlocked shotJustin Faulk
  • P2 15:30STLHitColton Parayko
  • P2 15:14Giveaway
  • P2 15:11Giveaway
  • P2 15:03Giveaway
  • P2 14:54NSHFaceoffRyan O'Reilly
  • P2 14:54Stoppage
  • P2 14:51STLShot on goalHugh McGing
  • P2 14:37Giveaway
  • P2 14:32STLShot on goalLogan Mailloux
  • P2 13:48NSHHitTyson Jost
  • P2 13:32STLMissed shotAlexey Toropchenko
  • P2 13:31STLBlocked shotAlexey Toropchenko
  • P2 12:36NSHFaceoffErik Haula
  • P2 12:36Stoppage
  • P2 12:30NSHMissed shotJonathan Marchessault
  • P2 12:11NSHShot on goalRyan O'Reilly
  • P2 11:47STLShot on goalAlexey Toropchenko
  • P2 11:29NSHFaceoffSteven Stamkos
  • P2 11:29Stoppage
  • P2 11:29Penalty
  • P2 11:27NSHShot on goalSteven Stamkos
  • P2 11:21STLHitAlexey Toropchenko
  • P2 11:06STLHitMatt Luff
  • P2 11:02STLShot on goalColton Parayko
  • P2 10:32STLHitColton Parayko
  • P2 10:24STLMissed shotColton Parayko
  • P2 10:16STLMissed shotDalibor Dvorsky
  • P2 10:05NSHHitReid Schaefer
  • P2 10:02STLBlocked shotPhilip Broberg
  • P2 10:00STLFaceoffDalibor Dvorsky
  • P2 10:00Stoppage

NSH vs STL · 259 events