Forensic report
75 ingested shots · flurry-adjusted xG · deserve-to-win meter
BUF
- Goals
- 4
- xG (flurry)
- 0.31
- xG (raw)
- 0.31
- Deserve %
- 61.8%
- Finishing luck
- +3.69
TOR
- Goals
- 3
- xG (flurry)
- 0.19
- xG (raw)
- 0.19
- Deserve %
- 38.2%
- Finishing luck
- +2.81
Deserve-to-win uses league-average goaltending assumption (MoneyPuck-style). Positive luck means outscoring flurry-adjusted expected goals; negative means underperforming shot quality.
Box score
Forwards
| # | Player | G | A | P | +/- | S | H | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | D. Roy | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22:34 | |
| 26 | T. Vanek | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:49 | |
| 56 | S. Bernier | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:03 | |
| 22 | A. Mair | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11:50 | |
| 28 | P. Gaustad | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:42 | |
| 29 | J. Pominville | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 23:35 | |
| 61 | M. Afinogenov | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | |
| 12 | A. Kotalik | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18:59 | |
| 20 | D. Paille | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 09:07 | |
| 21 | D. Stafford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:34 | |
| 36 | P. Kaleta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 06:13 | |
| 55 | J. Hecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 19:14 |
Defense
| # | Player | G | A | P | +/- | S | H | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | A. Sekera | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 25:43 | |
| 4 | N. Pratt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:07 | |
| 5 | T. Lydman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 23:21 | |
| 10 | H. Tallinder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23:00 | |
| 34 | M. Weber | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 23:50 | |
| 38 | N. Paetsch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:33 |
Goalies
| Player | SA | GA | SV% | TOI | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Miller | 22 | 3 | 86.4% | 65:00 | W |
| J. Thibault | NaN% | — |
Shot map
75 model xG shots in warehouse
High danger (xG ≥ 25%)Medium (xG 12–25%)Low (xG 5–12%)Very low (xG < 5%)Goal
Play-by-play
- P5 00:00BUFGoalMaxim Afinogenov, Andrew Raycroft
- P5 00:00TORShot on goalJohn Pohl
- P5 00:00BUFShot on goalThomas Vanek
- P5 00:00TORShot on goalJeremy Williams
- P5 00:00BUFShot on goalDrew Stafford
- P5 00:00TORShot on goalPavel Kubina
- P5 00:00BUFShot on goalDerek Roy
- P5 00:00TORShot on goalJiri Tlusty
- P5 00:00BUFShot on goalJason Pominville
- P5 00:00TORShot on goalAlexander Steen
- P5 00:00BUFGoalAles Kotalik, Andrew Raycroft
- P5 00:00TORGoalTomas Kaberle, Ryan Miller
- P4 03:54BUFShot on goalJason Pominville
- P4 02:59BUFShot on goalAles Kotalik
- P4 02:23—Penalty—
- P4 00:51BUFShot on goalJochen Hecht
- P4 00:43TORShot on goalAlexander Steen
- P3 19:57TORShot on goalAlexander Steen
- P3 17:11BUFShot on goalJason Pominville
- P3 14:39BUFGoalThomas Vanek, Andrej Sekera, Jason Pominville
- P3 14:07—Penalty—
- P3 12:37TORShot on goalPavel Kubina
- P3 12:22TORShot on goalDominic Moore
- P3 12:03TORGoalAlexander Steen, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Anton Stralman
- P3 11:50BUFShot on goalThomas Vanek
- P3 09:45TORShot on goalDarcy Tucker
- P3 09:18BUFShot on goalNathan Paetsch
- P3 09:18BUFGoalSteve Bernier, Adam Mair, Paul Gaustad
- P3 08:32BUFShot on goalDerek Roy
- P3 07:36TORShot on goalBoyd Devereaux
- P3 07:20BUFShot on goalPaul Gaustad
- P3 06:38BUFShot on goalMaxim Afinogenov
- P3 06:34BUFShot on goalDerek Roy
- P3 06:29BUFShot on goalThomas Vanek
- P3 05:15TORShot on goalPavel Kubina
- P3 04:55TORShot on goalJason Blake
- P3 02:39BUFShot on goalMike Weber
- P3 02:11TORShot on goalMatt Stajan
- P3 01:07TORShot on goalTomas Kaberle
- P2 19:22BUFShot on goalToni Lydman
- P2 19:15BUFShot on goalDerek Roy
- P2 17:08BUFShot on goalSteve Bernier
- P2 17:04BUFShot on goalAles Kotalik
- P2 16:59BUFShot on goalJochen Hecht
- P2 15:35TORShot on goalMark Bell
- P2 15:14BUFShot on goalDerek Roy
- P2 13:03—Penalty—
- P2 12:15BUFShot on goalAles Kotalik
- P2 11:35BUFShot on goalNathan Paetsch
- P2 11:22BUFShot on goalPatrick Kaleta
- P2 11:11BUFShot on goalDaniel Paille
- P2 09:17TORShot on goalJeremy Williams
- P2 08:56BUFShot on goalPaul Gaustad
- P2 08:01TORShot on goalAlexander Steen
- P2 06:27BUFShot on goalSteve Bernier
- P2 04:22BUFGoalDerek Roy, Maxim Afinogenov
- P2 04:21BUFShot on goalMaxim Afinogenov
- P2 03:42BUFShot on goalThomas Vanek
- P2 02:45BUFShot on goalJason Pominville
- P2 02:24TORShot on goalDominic Moore
- P2 02:23TORShot on goalJeremy Williams
- P2 01:57TORShot on goalStaffan Kronwall
- P1 19:03TORGoalTomas Kaberle, Jason Blake, Darcy Tucker
- P1 17:31—Penalty—
- P1 14:04BUFShot on goalJochen Hecht
- P1 13:52BUFShot on goalJochen Hecht
- P1 13:09BUFShot on goalPatrick Kaleta
- P1 12:01BUFShot on goalSteve Bernier
- P1 07:38BUFShot on goalSteve Bernier
- P1 07:34BUFShot on goalThomas Vanek
- P1 06:51BUFShot on goalThomas Vanek
- P1 06:03TORShot on goalBryan McCabe
- P1 03:42BUFShot on goalJochen Hecht
- P1 02:55BUFShot on goalAdam Mair
- P1 02:44BUFShot on goalAdam Mair
- P1 02:22TORShot on goalJiri Tlusty
- P1 02:14BUFShot on goalSteve Bernier
- P1 00:31TORShot on goalPavel Kubina
- P1 00:31TORGoalDarcy Tucker, Pavel Kubina, Mark Bell
BUF vs TOR · 79 events